 are my calculations correct
When I'm playing and I need to work out what percent I have for winning I say that each card has a 2% chance of appearing, (52 cards minus my 2 = 50 cards. each out has 1 /50 or 2%) I then multiply this by my outs and then by my attempts. ( rough easy system )
In this topics example (A x 3) and (K x 3) = 6 outs. board = 5 attempts. therefore (6 x 2%) x 5 = 60% not near 44%. However, with 2 attempts ( turn & river) (6 x 2) x 2 = 24% very acurrate.
However, If I have a 24% chance with 2 cards how can the 3 cards on the flop possibly offer only 20% ( assuming 44% is accurate for winning chances)
So I worked out an accurate system. (Outs / cards left in deck) x 100 = percentage chance of card hitting.
the results
6 / 48 = 12.5
6/ 47 = 12.77
6 / 46 = 13.04
6 / 45 = 13.33
6 / 44 = 13.64
Total = 65.28%
so if an Ace and a king hit the board 65.28% of the time why do we only win 44% of the time. well of all the times we hit the A or the K we must also assume our opponnent will hit another 9 about 1/5 th of the time.
so lets see how that works
2 / 48 = 4.17
2 / 47 = 4.26
2 / 46 = 4.35
2 / 45 = 4.44
2 / 44 = 4.55
total = 21.63 %
final calculation, chance of hitting A K - chance of 9 appearing
65.28 - 21.63 = 43.65 % winning hand
Your question however was how often the A or King will hit which is rougly 65 %
Hope this helps. I actually learned alot by doing that example. | 
