NEED YOUR EXPERTISE

I played in a $20 MTT today and got involved in a hand that is still bothering me. Any thoughts on it will be appreciated.

I was in the SB and delt pocket Js. Blinds were 200/400. Player in 2nd position raises 1k and I call. No one else is in the hand. 4,6,9 rainbow is on the flop and player goes all-in. I had 20k chips and other player had 17k. I folded and told the guy what I folded and he was a butt and wouldn't tell me what he had. I felt there were too many other hand that could beat me, to risk that big a raise. I wasn't in the money yet. I did end up in 17th place.

You had 20K left and there was less than 3K in the pot when he moved in. Not worth it, good fold. He may well have only had AK but with 2 cards to come you could still lose. 20K stack with 200/400 blinds is HUGE, wait for a better hand.

If you fold, he has AK. If you call, he has a higher pocket pair. That's how it seems to work. But really, both Homeville and Fink are right. It's too risky in that spot. The pot size is way to small for you to risk that many chips. The bet smelled fishy, but you should just wait for a better opportunity.

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cky12 - PokerStars
cky12 - FullTilt

My Poker Journal

One of the first things to ask yourself when this happens is how has the player with the all-in been playing? Has he been tight, aggressive or a combination of both. If he has been loose chances are he bought the pot. Most likely he had AX in his hand and when the flop did not hit the way he was hoping, he pushed all-in to scare you off the pot. That is my personal read on the situation and may not be true. If you did not have a good read on this player and thought he had a better hand then you, then you did right by laying down your PP. The important thing is you did finish ITM.

You really can't blame him though for not talking about his hand. Telling people what hand you just laid down or what hand you had when they laid down gives away too much information. The whole game of poker is based upon gaining information and putting it to use. So it is better for you as well not to discuss what you threw away.

Personally I would have raised the pre-flop bet to 3K to just to get a feel for what he had.

I typed in a nice, long reply to this in an internet cafe in london (bored and not feeling well at the time) - then just when i was reading through it before sending it i ran out of credit on the cafe and all was wiped....grrrr

This is the shortened version -
1) it depends on your reads on the guy - if unsure you should be checking poker tracker. If you don't have poker tracker and are playing in a 20$ MTT then that is mistake 1. You should look to see whether there is evidence of him playing less the perfect hands in early posiiton.

2) I have no qualms about folding JJ BEFORE THE FLOP!!! after some sign of strength - particularly from someone under or almost under the gun. I will even fold KK if i have a confident read (even if it a little bet) with aces. Calling makes life tough after the flop and too many tough decisions will lead to mistakes. It he is tight passive or is otherwise predictable post flop then there is some merit in calling if you think he will have ax. You have the advantage of him going first on the flop so it is playable but folding is fine. Depending on my read of him would depend on whether i would call raise or fold preflop - but all would be seriously considered in this situation.

Post flop your fold was correct - depending on your reads on him to depend what he has but i would say that - with no other information than that you have given me 88 or 1010 is probably the most likely holding he has - Some players would go all in here with 78s - others though would do it with trip 9s. I think there is too much risk in calling where he will either have draws to a better hand or have you dominated. Being risk adverse i would fold here but i think there is a good chance you will have the best of it- you will get a better chance though so why risk it now?

Calling on the flop would have been ok - but i think the fold was the %age play.

Ben... what??? If I am sitting on 20K in chips and have JJ I am calling 1K even if I KNOW FOR A FACT the guy has AA. Miss your flop and you fold but if you hit you own him...

i saw you saying that in another post fink but i still go along and say it is often not worth seeing post flop when you see real strength - i don't mind calling with UTTER trash sometimes eg 68s if i think i am up against someone with a premium who will be unlikely to fold it to anything post flop but calling with semi good hands just makes life tough on yourself - particularly if you suspect an over pair.

1) you need to be 100% right in your read.
Say you have kk and you "know" you are up against aa and the flop comes akx what do you do if you are a) first to act, b) second to act - this kind of situation happens a lot - i prefer to have a hand that is easy to play post flop. And with jj what are you looking for but a low flop - only ajx will otherwise score v ax and only jxx will score against an over pair. The sort of hands that you will want are too slim to make calling jj in some instances an attractive proposition. That is not to say that JJ should always be folded to strength but as soon as there is a credible sign of strength then the hand weakens considerably and it becomes foldable. Whether i would call with it would depend on my reads of the opponents but against an aggressive and good play i might well fold. Hands like 67s to me are actually more playable if you KNOW you are against an over pair. Calling 10% of my chips for something that will only happen 10% of the time to me is not wise EVEN if the flop comes js10s3d and you hold jj - he might smell a rat and fold aces! Giving me paltry gains for a long odds call - he might be cleverer than you think! . Now if i think i MAY be up against over cards and think i can tell from how the opponent plays the flop then i will often call but if i think an over pair i like to think i will have the discipline to trust a strong read and fold.

2) if you are 100% that he has aa or any other hand that is better than yours you have to be reasonably sure that you can make a BIG profit when you hit - just because you read his holdings doesnt mean that he doesnt read yours. Also the number of flops that are likely to 1) win for you and 2) win big are actually quite remote - I would rather invest those chips in a set up play than it hoping for some long odds eventuality. He maybe able to read you well enough to reduce your profits for when you catch and i reckon there will be better oppertunities to throw some chips on a long odds than this - and ones that will mix up my table image too!

Well, I was in a 180 tourney on PS earlier today. Right after the first break I had about 2800 in chips and got dealt AA. Came in with 450 raise (3x BB). Guy in comes over the top all-in 2500. Naturally I feel secure with my aces but in the back of my mind I'm saying don't be stupid, this is a game of longevity. So I call. He shows JJ. Do I need to say what came on the flop?
xxJ. Didn't see an ace and basically was out the next hand.

Now, I'm not an advocate of tossing AA. I've won lots but have also lost with them. What I did learn is that it wasn't worth my tourney at that moment in time. I was thinking if I had limped-in and maybe got a call to see the flop, I'd have gotten a better read on the guy.

Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is you have to go with your gut. I've actually won a lot with JJ but in your situation I think you did the right thing. Look at it as saving 17k. In one of the books I read there's something along this line. "A bet not made is a bet won" or something similar to that.