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Go Back   Poker Forums > Texas Hold Em Rooms > Advice & Strategy > Theory, Advice, Strategies

odds of hitting a set on the flop?

Theory, Advice, Strategies

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Old 03-17-2004, 10:01 PM
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Default odds of hitting a set on the flop?

does anyone know the odds of hitting a set on the flop in hold'em? what about hitting a flush draw with two suited cards?
  
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Old 03-27-2004, 12:39 AM
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Set on the flop is 1 in 12 by the river it is 1 in 7.5.
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Old 04-10-2004, 01:39 AM
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Feeling lazy today, so I'll just give the basics on flushes. A flush will hit every five hands, so you'll hit your flush 1 out of 20.
  
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Old 04-13-2004, 10:51 AM
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Default flush and straight flush

if you hit a straight and flush draw on the flop (15 outs) you have 54% chance to win making you the favorite, on the turn you drop to 32.6% chance to make your draw

an flush draw on the flop is 35% on the turn is 19.6%
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Old 06-07-2004, 02:32 PM
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Thumbs up Correct Odds for set on the flop

The odds for hitting a set on the flop if you have a pocket pair are 7.5 to 1, someone posted that these were the odds by the river. To explain the math, preflop you hold wired cards meaning out of the 50 unknown cards you have two outs. Subtract from 1 (or 100%) the odds of not hitting your set on the flop or 1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48) = 11.8%
Your odds now are (100%/11.8% - 1) = 7.5 to 1
Your odds by the river are 4.2 ish to 1 (if you are all in before the flop)
hope this helps
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Old 06-07-2004, 07:21 PM
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I believe MinneJohnny is right. I redid the math and flopping a flush draw would be only 10.8%.
  
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Old 06-08-2004, 05:00 PM
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Wink flush draw

Thats also close to what I got for flopping the flush draw, although we don't want to miss out on the 0.8% chance of actually flopping a flush right off the bat, add that to your 10.8%
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Old 06-10-2004, 09:18 AM
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youre right about the set.. i was confused that week..?
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Old 02-09-2005, 08:01 AM
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you can play the odds all you want, that is what I usly do, and I am quite good at predicting my prefolp odds, however, that flop brings alot of chances for the 10% and 15% hand that you were a big favorite over preflop to have taken the lead from you.
  
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Old 02-09-2005, 01:20 PM
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You should hit a set 1out of7 times... i dont remember if thats on the flop or to the river.
  
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