 what rookie "NL" flush players don't realize
The rookie NL player is either a rookie holdem player or one that predominantly plays limit holdem and dabbles in NL or SnG NL tournaments.
The limit holdem game is “nofoldem holdem”; it does not cost many chips in most cases to take your hand to the river…so you will see many players playing any two suited pocket cards and taking them to the river to see if they can get lucky and draw a flush….however, this can be a very costly venture in the NL game…in most cases, this player is not going to be able to see the next card with one or two big bets and in some cases it can cost them their entire bank to see the next card., but the limit player has made and seen a lot of flushes made by opponents in going all the way to 5th street to catch that flush, they just feel that it just cost more in the NL game and have all the confidence in the world of hitting their flush..
The rookie holdem player just doesn’t know better and says “wow, I have a chance for a flush”.
What these players or any player that plays any two suited pocket cards doesn’t understand is, that they will have 2 suited pocket cards 24% of the time or 1 out of every 3 hands, they will only hit a flopped flush 1% of the time, they will have a four flush draw at the flop 11% of the time and will only complete the four flush flop 35% of the 11% with 2 cards to come and only 20% of the 11% with one card to come. In the NL game, as I said earlier it could cost them their entire bank to see that next card, which is more than “risky play” it is stupid play…if we relate it to NFL football, it would be like going for a long pass when its 4th and 10 and your on your own 20 yard line…its possible to succeed…but its just stupid to try.
Since you will get suited pocket cards once in three hands, it could be very costly just to limp in with them if you just wanted to see the flop…when you add up all those limp bets or calls vs your long shot wins you will see that overall you run negative not positive. But again in NL your not going to see the flop with a limp in most cases so it is even costlier in the NL game and in many cases it could be suicide to call the flop or turn large bets especially if you are drawing to low or medium suited pocket cards.
Some say that low and medium suited connectors have so many possibilities…yes they do, but they are all junk possibilities…if you pair, you have a junk pair…if you hit your flush, there is a very good chance that an opponent has a higher flush with their pocket suited cards or the board then turns into a four flush board and then in most cases you are dead….yes you hit a str8, however it is a sucker str8. Now how are you going to be confident with any of these outcomes?
Worse yet, the flop hits another possibility giving you another reason to stay in with your junk hand that can do some nice damage to your bank.
With face card suited connectors it’s a different story altogether, now, not only do you have all the possibilities but you have a lot to fall back on if you don’t get your flush or flush draw and if you hit anything you have a much better chance of taking down the pot and now you might be in a much better position to call or even raise that large bet.[IMG]
Last edited by CRAPSHOOT; 09-20-2005 at 12:50 AM.
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