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First Hand of a Tourney Theory, Advice, Strategies  | | 
09-01-2005, 05:07 AM
| | | |  First Hand of a Tourney
Say you sit down to a 3 table 10 seater tournament. You know the players are average - not too loose, but not great. Would you rather be dealt AA or AKs on the very first hand? It seems like a silly question because AA is muchmore likely to win, but the blinds are so low early that I think you are looking for a good potential hand more than a made hand.
If you have AA so early, what are you hoping for someone to hit? 1 pair? how much money can they lose on that? The only way for someone to improve (and still be behind you) is for the board to pair. Which surely makes them play their pair more timidly now that they are afraid of trips. Same goes for if you improve to a full house without the ace.
On the other hand, there are many levels of hands that AK can hit, all with a reasonable possibility of a hand being just behind it. If you get two pair aces and kings someone who has two pair as well will rate their two pair much higher than the aces two pair scenario. I know I'm more confident with K7 on a KA7 flop than on a 744 or K66flop.
In terms of these pairs, two pairs and full house scenarios, I am trying to say that your likelihood of making money can have a lot to do with "hand made" vs "minimum hand possible", if you improve to two pair with aces, the worst possible hand anyone can have is one pair. Plus there's the opportunity with AKs to get a flush or straight - in both cases there being a good possibility for someone to make second best hand, and for AKs to take someone's entire stack.
I'm just curious to see what people think about this, I haven't come up with any specific mathematical proof or anything, just putting the idea forward. Maybe I haven't taken into account enough the many small-medium pots AA can pick up, but I just think that the few medium-large pots + few small medium pots AKs can win would equal more.
Obviously when the blinds go up there are better opportunities for AA, due to the fact that people are committing a higher percentage of their stack before they have seen the flop + more all-in possibilities + bluffs etc. | | |
09-01-2005, 05:55 AM
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I will take AA over any other hand any time, any blind level, any buy-in, any day. It's the best starting hand and is difficult to beat and be read. I can understand where you are coming from, but I always want that big made hand, because it is already made. There might be little chance for improving, but you have a great hand anyways. With AKs or truly any other non-pocket pair hand for that matter, you might not and usually won't hit your hand. Now after you miss the flop, you might chase a little and miss even more. As with a made hand, you know you have something, and your opponent has to hit a great hand in order to beat you.
Last edited by kikolo; 09-01-2005 at 05:57 AM.
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09-01-2005, 06:24 AM
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I, like kikolo will take AA anytime...and I will go a step further, the pot is just fine the way it is, thank you....what you are suggesting is danger, you want to build a big pot for your monsters...you want your opponent to hit....well juat ask anyone who let an 86o into a pot so they could build it up a little only to find an 86 flop, not know that the opponent had 86 and get killed at the showdown....I'll just take the pot now, thank you. | | |
09-01-2005, 08:03 AM
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OK, but both you guys seem to be saying that you will be more confident and win more times because you don't have to hit. I'm talking about long term EV, not percentage of times I make a hand. you haven't mentioned anything at all like value or sizes of pots that will be won. You could have used the same argument for 22 - "it is already made". You have said AA is difficult to beat. If I don't want to be beat, I will take AA of course, but I'm asking about long term money potential here. I'm not saying I'm sure AKs is better to have first hand of a tourney, I'm merely saying that I don't think you guys have considered the angle I'm coming from. | | |
09-01-2005, 05:18 PM
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AA definitely is the choice, but you always run the risk of either getting no action on the hand if you raise. Getting too much action if you don't bet enough. Or getting out drawn if you go all-in against another pocket pair. And we all hate getting knocked out early with a strong hand but it happens all the time. If its a low cost tourny the decision is a bit easier and go for it and if you lose just enter another. If you win a big pot on the first hand you in the cat bird seat. | | |
09-01-2005, 09:37 PM
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I'd rather have 99 than AA. 99 is always a winner  | | |
09-02-2005, 12:06 AM
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Quote: |
Originally Posted by wobrien69 OK, but both you guys seem to be saying that you will be more confident and win more times because you don't have to hit. I'm talking about long term EV, not percentage of times I make a hand. you haven't mentioned anything at all like value or sizes of pots that will be won. You could have used the same argument for 22 - "it is already made". You have said AA is difficult to beat. If I don't want to be beat, I will take AA of course, but I'm asking about long term money potential here. I'm not saying I'm sure AKs is better to have first hand of a tourney, I'm merely saying that I don't think you guys have considered the angle I'm coming from. | Tournaments are not about only winning HUGE pots. A good tournament player with continuously take down the small pots and keep building up the stack. The big hands and pots will come, but you can't force them. You have to let it come to you. In the long run, I want tons of small pots rather than one big one. If you rely on the big pots to boost your stack and carry you throughout the tourney, you are in a risky situation. A huge pot can go the other way and you could lose a lot. Why not be involved in a lot of small pots and continuously build your stack? | | |
09-02-2005, 03:14 AM
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I would vote for AK suited over AA anyday for the reasons you addressed. With AA, you will either win a small pot or lose a large pot many times. If you choose to slow play your aces, and flop comes 3 straight or 3 flush, you are in some trouble, because especially early in a tourny, folks will call or reraise on that draw ( or might just have it). If you push it, yes generally you will win, or scare everyone- and that nets you what 40 chips?
On the other hand, AK suited can get you that same pr/ better kicker, high straight, high flush or even just High card. This one, to me, begs to be slow played, but with the right flop(s)- many- can make you a ton of chips.
I have won too many baby pots with AA and lost too many trying to slow play them to like them these days 
my 2 cents
Edit: I will agree with Kik and Crap when we are talking about mid or LATE tourney, but not early. Early on there are too many callers to all-ins and monster raises and if you don't isolate, the chance is good they will get busted. I play them with care early.
Edit 2 : Agree with Kik about winning lots of small pots and avoiding game breaking large pots ( well I do)
Last edited by Alli2132; 09-02-2005 at 03:21 AM.
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09-02-2005, 03:35 AM
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In the long run I think you're better off playing 9 7 suited rather than A A -- the +EV is spectacular...and the hand always gets paid off. Remember it well...9 7 suited OWNS =)
Hope you sense the sarcasm in that post...but in all honesty I do like 9 7 suited...try it out sometime, you'll see what I'm talkin' about.
Got Rice? Or Just Aces? -AceHigh Pino | | |
09-02-2005, 03:55 AM
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Quote: |
Originally Posted by Alli2132 Early on there are too many callers to all-ins and monster raises | You are only looking on the negative side of AA. Yes, you could lose a big pot, but you can lose big with any hand. What if you play AKs, hit your ace on the flop and there are no draws. Now you have top pair, top kicker, and it looks like nobody will draw on you. But wait, someone was playing ace rag, hit both his ace and rag and takes a large pot from you. You can always find a negative side to any hand, any situation. With AA, you don't neccesarily just win a small pot or just lose a big one. You can also win a big one. What if you are up against AK and the flop brings a king (or even both Ace and King). Now your opponent has top pair with top kicker, but wait, you have him beat and will probably take a large pot. Early, middle, or late, I will always choose AA over any other hand.
Early in a tournament, if you get AA, you can't play it scared. You can't be thinking, "oh, someone will draw out on me unless I bet this massive preflop and make everyone else fold." You've got to be thinking, how much can I push so that I will get a decent amount of callers, meaning one or two. If those callers catch a decent pair, great because you will have it beat. If they happen to catch two pair (which is fairly unlikely to happen anyways), tough luck. If you are playing AKs, you have to be raising a decent amount preflop also. You don't want all those chasers calling. What if you do get those chasers, you flop a pair, but they flopped two smaller pairs. They all of the sudden have you beat, but you think your top pair, top kicker is best. I don't see an advantage to playing AKs over AA unless you are soley looking at the straight and/or flush possibility, which is fairly unlikely to hit anyways. With AK, if you get a pair of aces, your kicker is not at good as with AA. If you hit a king, that is not at good as AA. And all of this talk about playing AKs is IF YOU HIT. You will not always hit your hand with AKs. I don't know the statistics, but you probably have a better chance of missing completely than hitting something good. That is why playing the best starting hand in poker is beneficial. It is already made. It's not called the best starting hand for nothing. | | | Thread Tools | Search this Thread | | | | 
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