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Go Back   Poker Forums > Texas Hold Em Rooms > Advice & Strategy > Theory, Advice, Strategies

a myth about pre-flop all-in calls

Theory, Advice, Strategies

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Old 06-23-2005, 10:54 PM
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No because if the flop/turn comes [5,7,Q] +[J] : 6,8 has more outs, as 6,8 has the open ended, AK dont.
Or
Flop/Turn Comes [7,9,J]+[Q] 6,8 still has a open ended straight draw where as AK only has one.
  
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Old 06-23-2005, 11:40 PM
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That's fine for 6,8 Zaphor...but BSQUAD is talking about 8,Q...give us that answer!

Last edited by CRAPSHOOT; 06-24-2005 at 02:59 AM.
  
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Old 06-27-2005, 09:00 AM
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Crapshoot:
This is the basis of your argument.
"Once an all-in hand is exposed where a player has pp it does not make much difference how much higher the opponents unpaired hand is"
"if the unpaired hand is hit and the paired hand does not hit"

I shall argue for AKo;

Here is your original statistics,

Ac Kh ..vs.. 5d 5s = AKo win 45% .. 55 win 55%
8c 6h ..vs.. 5d 5s = 86o win 46% .. 55 win 54%
Not a clear cut case exactly 1%

Same players:
86o believes that his opp. has pocket fives but actually holds AKo

Ac Kh ..vs.. 8d 6s = Ac Kh win 63% .. 8d 6s win 37%
86o is a little under a 2 -to- 1 underdog in this situation

Lets try a higher pocket pair

Ac Kh ..vs.. 9d 9s // AKo win 44% .. 99 win 56%
8c 6h ..vs.. 9d 9s // 86o win 15% .. 99 win 85%
Your argument is demonstrated here. The over cards are a coin flip situation 1-to-1 or 50:50 if your 2 hole cards are higher than your opp. pocket pair.

So now we must ask the question why is 86o a favorite over AKo heads up versus a pair of fives.

I believe this is because of the 86o ability to negate the pocket fives ability to redraw to a straight. Why is this: Because 2 cards that help complete a 4 card board straight are missing and if middle cards come 86 can make a higher straight were it would defeat AK w/ the same hand. This is only a small percentage.
A flush redraw is an example of the effect of a redraw on a hands winning %.
The addition of a flush redraw bumps us a little higher
8d 6d win 48.923% vs. 5d 5s win 51.077% *note : 1 diamond is gone = 1 flush card
8h 6h win 49.156% vs. 5d 5s win 50.844% 11 flush cards vs 10 fc = .233%

Poker players stick with AK vs 86 suited or unsuited.

Why because AK is only gonna be a major under dog to two hands AA and KK.
AA vs AK 93% .. 7%
KK vs AK 70% .. 30%
QQ vs AK 57% .. 43% <---------Only a slight underdog to all pairs under KK
77 vs AK 56% .. 44% <---------86o is still a 2-to-1 underdog
22 vs AK 53% .. 47%

Whereas 86o is a underdog to ALOT of hands AA, KK, AK, KT, TT, 88, 87o, 96o to name a few.
Not alot of equity if you ask me.

A few more statistics
Lets try AKo and 86s vs any of the 169 diff. hands (random)

AKo vs. Random hand. 2 billion hands sim.
AK win 65% vs. Random 35%

86s vs Random hand. 2 billion hands sim.
86 Suited win 46% vs. Random 54%

Poker Stove Statistics (avg. # of games sim 1.7 mil.)

To make the 86 offsuit call in a ten handed NL tournament. Conditions must apply.
Postion: Hold'em is a position game
Very positive pot odds: 2.5-to-1 or higher (debatable)
Comparison of all-in bet to your stack: Rarely will you dominate so you must be o.k. with a coin flip situation at BEST. If it is in the mid to late stages of a tournament and the bet is an all in, that is small in comparison to the blinds. A call may be correct.
The always important: Opponent and will he go all in with small pocket pair
Your the late great Stu Ungar

Oneday
  
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Old 06-27-2005, 02:13 PM
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Don't get me wrong Oneday...I am not promoting calling all-ins with 86o, but am mearly pointing out that things are not as hopeless as they seem in some situations and AKo is not as strong as it seems in some situations.

You might also notice some bitterness in my tone when I talk about AK, because I have not hit AK in a year now (and I play daily)....yesterday was the first time, I had AK and the flop was AKK...I went all-in and had two callers...one of the callers also had AK...so when I finally do hit AK...I have to split the pot with it. The very next hand I get AK again and go all-in with it pre-flop...called by QJ...flop a K...I say thinks are changing for me....nope, QJ draws a str8 and knocks me out of a $5,000 tournament after reaching the tail end of the tournament.

In fact I rarely hit Ax...if x is high....it makes it difficult to win with that kind of luck!

Last edited by CRAPSHOOT; 06-27-2005 at 02:43 PM.
  
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Old 06-27-2005, 10:11 PM
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Yup your unlucky. AK not winning for a year is amazing.
  
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Old 06-28-2005, 12:38 AM
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By the way oneday...I thought that your post was interesting...thanks!
  
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Old 07-09-2005, 01:26 AM
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This was a very scary post to read. I'm not sure but I think the difference in percentage is that by holding cards such as 6 Q you present the possibility that even if the 55 catches another 5 to make trips, that 5 might work against him if you can use it in conjuction with your 6 to complete a straight.

I think the real point is that you'll never know what PP you're opponent is holding or if he's holding a PP at all, so you're much safer with AK than with 86.
  
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