Throw Those Pocket Pairs Away

Wow... I Can see people getting tighter, and tighter, and tighther...

You're close. However you've missed a concept which is important when calculating any poker odds. First i'll explain with words:

Imagine you've got a coin. Odds of flipping head? 1 in 2. Now say you've get TWO flips. Odds of catching that one heads (at least one)? Well, according to that math:

(1/2) + (1/2) = 100 %

Try it yourself, you won't guarentee yourself heads every time with two flips. So how can you figure in this seemingly statistical anomaly? Figure in the chances you'll even NEED a second flip to land heads. I'll show you:

(1/2) + (1/2)*(.50) = 3/4 or 75%

The .50 comes from the first flip. There is a 50% chance you will need a second flip because you didn't get heads first flip. If it were a 1 in 10 chance of landing heads, this number would become .90 (90%).

So to accurately calculate the odds of catching trip from PP, you'd start like this:

(2/50) + (2/49)*(.96) + (2/48)*(.96)*(.9591) = 11.8%

This may seem a little bit irrelevant, but as you can see it does affect the odds some.

Maybe someone understant this information, or maybe nobody does. But it's ok, it makes sense to me. I think i'll start my own thread for calculating odds like this one.

yeah your right (ive actually got a degree in maths and statistics - im pissed off i didnt remember that!)

i dont know if this makes it easier for some people to understand but this is another way to look at this formula

(2/50) + (2/49)*(48/50) + (2/48)*(48/50)*(47/49)

or in basic terms
(odds of hitting trips) + (odds of hitting trips on 2nd card multiplied by the odds you didnt get it on the first card) + (odds of hitting trips on the 3rd card multiplied by odds of not getting it on the 1st and 2nd cards)

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Texas Holdem Resources : Hand Rankings Terminology Pre Flop Odds Odds Chart
Poker Odds Calculator - Find out if you were right to make that call!

Yes but you are also not counting on trips even though you may hit them, It doesnt hurt to see the flop if its cheap enough. But you can also hit two pair , and thats comforting when your oponent has two very high cards and the boared is low.

I myself have to see the flop every poket pair as long as it is worth my chips.

i tend to call with any pocket pair when the blinds are low in a sng but when the blinds get higher i usually fold pocket 2s or 4s or whatever - at the later stages i would probably go all in with a middle pocket pair than call with them

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Texas Holdem Resources : Hand Rankings Terminology Pre Flop Odds Odds Chart
Poker Odds Calculator - Find out if you were right to make that call!

I've seen that before and completely forgot. I guess I didnt want to believe my way was wrong because it was so easy. Thanks for the correction. Luckely all the guides i write and am writing are based off odds I have memorized from hard published books instead of my very own calculations lol.

I always wondered why my odds were close to the ones in my books but never exact.

WTF? I have asked a million math questions on here and no one seems to ever know and now we have the WonderMath team posting on this thread. I nearly gave up asking them.

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Napoleon, don't be jealous that I've been chatting online with babes all day. Besides, we both know that I'm training to be a cage fighter.

Yes it's all true what you've heard. My "degree of excellence" in math was earned in my high school algebra classes. I usually just reason my way through odds like I did that one.

Franky, ask away. I started a threat about odds to give people bits and pieces of odds at a time. Maybe it'll help people to calculate their own odds accurately as well on the spot. Try one yourself

http://www.texasholdemforums.com/sho...9619#post29619

Wow... over my head...