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| hold'em or fold'em Theory, Advice, Strategies |
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03-31-2005, 09:49 PM
| | | | Quote: |
Originally Posted by Zaphor You scared of the first hand in a tournament? lol
**Zaphor Makes mental note** | are you being serious here? scared? how about smart poker....you can be the guy who gets knocked out on the first hand with T's against something like KQ, or AJ.....I do know this....of all the options presented here, Calling is hands down the worst option. and you go ahead and make that mental note....so if we ever are at the same opening table for a tournament and you get t's you raise all in and I will fold.....good notes.
FrankyDaPit make mental note
__________________
Napoleon, don't be jealous that I've been chatting online with babes all day. Besides, we both know that I'm training to be a cage fighter.
Last edited by FrankyDaPit; 03-31-2005 at 09:59 PM.
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04-01-2005, 09:39 AM
| | | | Quote: |
Originally Posted by FrankyDaPit But I also said that I was unsure of the math. I came up with 80% based on something I read saying that if you do not hold an ace, you will see one on the flop about 20% of the time...based on that I just multiplied it by 4 to get a rough estimate. If you know how to figure that out then I am all ears.
so, do you think calling is the best play here? |
The chances of any particular card coming up on the flop which i dont already hold is 4/50 - 4/48 which comes in at about 8%-8.34%. If that card still doesnt come up the chances of it coming up on the turn is 4/46 as a percentage is 8.7%, if the card still hasnt made an appearence the chances of hitting on the river is 4/45 as a percentage is 8.88%
I originally answered this post with a Raise of 900, however after some thoguht i have decided to change and go for an all-in raise, Keep the other guy guessing and make him make the decisions - i think doyle brunson said that in supersystem, i could be wrong. lol  | |
04-01-2005, 09:43 AM
| | | | Quote: |
Originally Posted by FrankyDaPit are you being serious here? scared? how about smart poker....you can be the guy who gets knocked out on the first hand with T's against something like KQ, or AJ.....I do know this....of all the options presented here, Calling is hands down the worst option. and you go ahead and make that mental note....so if we ever are at the same opening table for a tournament and you get t's you raise all in and I will fold.....good notes.
FrankyDaPit make mental note | 1. I dont care if i go out in the first hand, its like goooing out in second, winnings, winning, and if i dont win then i dont care what place i come.
2. If we ever go heads up id take 10s anyday against a A,K - wouldnt you?
- stats favour me | |
04-01-2005, 01:55 PM
| | | | Quote: |
Originally Posted by Zaphor 1. I dont care if i go out in the first hand, its like goooing out in second, winnings, winning, and if i dont win then i dont care what place i come.
2. If we ever go heads up id take 10s anyday against a A,K - wouldnt you?
- stats favour me |
well, of course normally I would take 10's vs AK but not on the first hand, or even the first 50 hands....that is that way I play tournaments. I would even call a fairly large raise in late postion but that is not the case here...but the main reason I say fold here is because you are already up against 2-3 callers ( I forgot and this is an edit so I can see the original post) and there are more to follow behind so I may not get heads up even with an all in raise...I figure that if some is raising and calling from 2 of the first 3 positions that is a big signal of strength...I am very conservative until about the first break....there are several reasons for this, but that is for another time......so I guess my answer is no in the beginning of the tournament and yes late in the tourney....again, I guess I am assuming that this is a tournament with a decent buy in.....if it was a free roll of some stinking 5$ tourney then I may call cause I am only risking 5$ or whatever.
__________________
Napoleon, don't be jealous that I've been chatting online with babes all day. Besides, we both know that I'm training to be a cage fighter.
Last edited by FrankyDaPit; 04-01-2005 at 02:01 PM.
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04-01-2005, 02:15 PM
| | | | Quote: |
Originally Posted by Zaphor The chances of any particular card coming up on the flop which i dont already hold is 4/50 - 4/48 which comes in at about 8%-8.34%. If that card still doesnt come up the chances of it coming up on the turn is 4/46 as a percentage is 8.7%, if the card still hasnt made an appearence the chances of hitting on the river is 4/45 as a percentage is 8.88%
I originally answered this post with a Raise of 900, however after some thoguht i have decided to change and go for an all-in raise, Keep the other guy guessing and make him make the decisions - i think doyle brunson said that in supersystem, i could be wrong. lol  |
yeah, but I cant figure out what the odds are for hitting ANY of the cards...if I were to apply the same logic that would mean that the odds of hitting any FAce or Ace on the board would be 16/50 to 16-48 which is about 32% for each flop card ( roughly) and around 35% for the turn and river.....what I dont know is where to go from here? Does anyone know?....I realized that I dont know how to compute this and it is buggin the shit out of me.
__________________
Napoleon, don't be jealous that I've been chatting online with babes all day. Besides, we both know that I'm training to be a cage fighter.
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04-02-2005, 04:03 AM
| | | | Your right, But in your hand you can only hold two face cards, so you dont have a 32% chance of hitting a face, there is a 32% chance a face will come up. | |
04-03-2005, 04:39 AM
| | | | Def raise to 900+ u have to take out the rest of the table and play that hand heads up. you'll have better chances of winning with still a big pot in front of you. You don't want to feel pot commited so if your beat u have to lay it down
__________________
LATA KIDD
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04-03-2005, 05:41 AM
| | | | No such thing as pot commited. Thats why when you play with inters and newbies if you raise like 200 and they call, then next hand you raise 600 they will call because they feel they are "pot commited" crazy :/ | |
04-04-2005, 04:34 PM
| | | | Quote: |
Originally Posted by Zaphor Your right, But in your hand you can only hold two face cards, so you dont have a 32% chance of hitting a face, there is a 32% chance a face will come up. |
No, I am talking about the perspective of the guy holding to 10's and the reason why I think calling is a mistake......if you are holding the Tens and the flop contains ANY face or Ace card, your nuts are going to shrivel if you have 4-5 callers out there and you are only holding 10's.....so I want to know what the odds are for any FAce or Ace hitting.....I want to know the odds that someone with 10's nuts will shrivel, which I think are pretty good, just now sure HOW good....so I need to know the odds of any ace or face hitting....this has been bugging me for days....I might have to bust out the ole statistics book and see if I can figure it out.
__________________
Napoleon, don't be jealous that I've been chatting online with babes all day. Besides, we both know that I'm training to be a cage fighter.
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04-04-2005, 04:39 PM
| | | | I cannot believe how many people think that calling is the best play here. The "call" button should be the one that is pressed the least of any of them. Try not to use it, especially when holding a middle pair in the face of 3-4 callers and 4-5 more to act behind you. Oh Well, too each his own.
__________________
Napoleon, don't be jealous that I've been chatting online with babes all day. Besides, we both know that I'm training to be a cage fighter.
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