is Texas hold'em luck or skill?

“Limit” hold’em requires much more luck than NL hold’em requires, so I am not even going to discuss limit hold’em here. Now the amount of luck is going to depend on the game that you play…wait a minute, you said NL hold’em….ah yes, but is it a cash ring game, a SNG, MTT, WSOP title…….just what kind of game are you playing and how much is at risk…this will tell you, how much luck is involved.

One of the most expensive hold’em games is the 20/40 cash game and I am not talking about the $20/$40 game here…I am talking about the $20,000/$40,000 cash game where almost all luck is removed from the game. It is one thing to call a 4xBB for 80 chips in a freeroll with chips that you didn’t even pay for, to try and get “lucky” and hit your “gutshot” straight….but, I want to see you call a 4xBB bet of $160,000 of your own hard earned money and try to hit that miracle “gutshot” straight. How long are you going to stay in the pot with pp 3's to see if you can hit a set against a board of face cards?...I would be willing to bet, not very long in this game.

The amount of luck involved in hold’em is relative to how much is at stake to the players….the higher the risk the more the skills that are involved rather than “luck”…you see, one of the players in the “expensive” game is going to make it very costly for you to see another card if you want to stick around and try to get lucky.

Their would be no contest if Agassi stepped onto a tennis court against you on the other hand…you could get lucky and beat Phil Ivey in a freeroll tournament…but lets put you in that $20,000/$40,000 cash game against Phil Ivey…it would be like you stepping onto that tennis court against Agassi.

We all complain about “bad beats” and opponent luck, but don’t forget we are also in freerolls or low entry games. If you are going to rely on luck then stay in those games and don’t move up…it takes a serious player in order to move out of that level where skill starts to become more of a factor than luck. Yes then it is a skill game and the luck aspect of the game begins to diminish.

one of the problems with the WSOP is the unskilled players winning their way in online in a satellite...then in the early stages of the tournament, they stay in a hand that they did not belong in and get lucky and knock that skilled player out. that unskilled player might not make it very far in the tournament...but that unskilled player just might take a few intelligent players or worse yet, pro's down with him or her.
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Some learn by reading…..Some learn by observation…….while others have too pee on the electric fence for themselves

Great post and it is totaly true, though I know that you knew that. I play completely different in real money SNGs than I do in freerolls. Even if you don't think about it, everyone does.

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cky12 - PokerStars
cky12 - FullTilt

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thanks kikolo, and yes everyone plays a little different when they play real money verses freeroll...but they still see too many cards...luck is related to how many cards that they get to see...then all those "don't belong" hands start to hit.

Luck is on a diminishing scale as you move up in the buy-in requirements.

The higher the financial risk to an individual the less "lets get lucky" attitude that one has.

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Some learn by reading…..Some learn by observation…….while others have too pee on the electric fence for themselves

You hit the nail on the head with that post. I remember in the 2003 WSOP when Sam Fahar was intervied and he said his confidence against pros is great. But he has problems with the less skilled amatuer because of what you stated. Thats why many pros don't think they will win another WSOP event. Too many recklous players,

as was stated it couldnt have been typed better , however would adding a qualifing hand to holdem change the game for the better ot worse and is it even possible to do so, we have all been is situation where you place a big bet out with pocket kings against a q-2 lol and u get called only to lose to quad queens lol or was that just my experience lol know i dont mean anything to this refreences only used it because half of you who will read this no this situation woudl it be effective to say that a qualifier has to be a pair or paint and a kicker over 9 ? or the suited connectors , i feel this would get rid of some of the luck when all players are starting with decent hands??

Common sense (and UNcommon poker savvy) says that you CANNOT beat a bad player by playing GOOD poker. By that, I mean that it is a waste of time to try to use advanced, theoretical plays against a weak player. They, quite simply, don't know when they are (or when they're not but they SHOULD think they are) beat in a hand. Poker tactics should only be applied to a player with enough poker know-how to appreciate the move and respond accordingly. The fish, on the other hand, will call with ANY pair or ANY draw. Believe me, I've learned the HARD WAY that against a weak player, the best play is the most obvious play 90% of the time. I absolutely LOVE to checkraise, but I won't even ATTEMPT it against a fish. Unless I KNOW I've got them cornered. Pot-size raises and 5x BB openers mean NOTHING to the uninitiated....so long as they THINK they have outs.-------------------------------------------------------------------------BEWARE OF THE < *, ))))) >< ---------

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!!!!!VICTORY IS MINE!!!!!

Skill comes with knowing when to fold'em. Luck however maximizes its possibilities when you have the chip stack to see more flops. I urge you chip leaders out there to see more flops whith those K 5 hands. I mean why not see a cheap flop that allows yopu to get lucky. Why have those crazy river chasers with low chip counts capitalize when your sitting behind the screen or at the table saying I can't believe he called with nothing and hit those cards on the flop.

I will occassionally see a flop with a lousy starting hand, but only when im in a good position, like on the button so when i miss i can get out without losing more chips. Ive read that a pro poker player will only see a flop on the average 1 of every 6 hands and that positioning is key to when they see them.

Now look at that statement realisticly! You are still talking about the same amount of risk and luck in either the cash or scenario. The only difference is how much are you willing to venture towards luck. A person who is only willing to play pocket pairs Jack or better, and Big slick in anything less than a $100 SnG would not survive. His skill is no less> Odds say that he would win! Realisticly, the man stands no chance as he would have to have the LUCK that A. the table cards work in his hand and B do not work in others to a better degree.
To counter your Ivey comment. Give some poor slob $500,000 in chips. don't tell him that they are real. sit him down at a table of pros. LMAO I'd be willing to bet he'd take at least to out scare 2 off and totally irate the others. Not that he'd be playing better. But, the fear of the wager would not be instilled.
Luck and skill go hand in hand when playing texas hold'em. It's the wagering fear that will make or break you!!!