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Go Back   Poker Forums > Texas Hold Em Rooms > Advice & Strategy > Theory, Advice, Strategies

What is the percentage chance of Flopping an 8 out situation?

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Old 04-22-2008, 05:17 PM
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Default What is the percentage chance of Flopping an 8 out situation?

I've been having trouble searching for the answer to this question but basically what I want to know is my percentage chance to flop an 8 out situation with an Openended Straight Draw or a Double Gutshot.

Now here is the thing. With No Gaps, 1 Gap, 2 Gap and 3 Gap connectors the possibilities of 2 cards to come at the flop or 3 cards to come at the flop to give a double gutshot, all these chances must be different. I know No Gaps are more powerful than 1 Gaps and 1 Gaps are more powerful than 2 Gaps ect... but what I want to know is by how much?
  
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Old 04-22-2008, 07:47 PM
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I could go through a complicated analysis (best I did in my head was 18% of 18%), but instead I'm taking the cheap easy way out to answer this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.537% 77.37% 00.17% { AA }
Hand 1: 22.463% 22.30% 00.17% { 87s }

Hand 0: 78.764% 78.58% 00.18% { AA }
Hand 1: 21.236% 21.06% 00.18% { 86s }

edit: Before anyone comes in and points this out, I mistakenly chose suited hands instead of all suites, which adds about a 5% chance to win. I'm not too worried about that since the question in this case is about the 1 gap to no gap chance. But for the record please note that your overall chances to win with this hand would in face be worse then what I listed above.
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Old 06-17-2008, 12:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiredDragon View Post
I've been having trouble searching for the answer to this question but basically what I want to know is my percentage chance to flop an 8 out situation with an Openended Straight Draw or a Double Gutshot.

Now here is the thing. With No Gaps, 1 Gap, 2 Gap and 3 Gap connectors the possibilities of 2 cards to come at the flop or 3 cards to come at the flop to give a double gutshot, all these chances must be different. I know No Gaps are more powerful than 1 Gaps and 1 Gaps are more powerful than 2 Gaps ect... but what I want to know is by how much?
I think 18% is correct. I like to use odds so I round it off to 4 to 1. The difference between the gaps varies according to the strength of the cards. For example using computations based on the 72 best 2-card hands, I figure that KQo is 15% better than KJo which is 16% better than KTo. Compare to 76s which is 19% better than 75s which is 36% better than 74s. Somebody better at math than me would undoubtedly come up with different figures, but I think this is close.
  
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