Levels of Thought in Poker

This is kind of long, but I'd like to bring it up in hopes of helping some of our newer players understand the thought processes that happen during a hand. While re-reading Sklansky's No Limit Holdem, Theory and Practice, I noticed an interesting theory that I remember Negraneau talking about during an interview. The levels of thought in the poker mind.

1st Level: "What do I have?" This level, most common to beginners, takes only your two cards into account. No attempt made to put your opponent on a hand. This is also the level of thinking that is used most often when shortstacked (M<5) in a tournament. If my hand is greater than X, all in. If my hand is <X, fold.

2nd Level: "What do I have, and what do I think he has?" On this level, you now attempt to assign a range of hands to your opponent based off the limited information you have. Tells, betting patterns, previous hand recall, etc. Here you start to get clued in on where you "stand", and formulating you winning percentages against the range of hands your opponent likely has.

3rd Level: "What do I have, what do I think he has, and what does he think I have?" Now we're starting to get tricky. Now we have to start thinking about what he thinks we have... Here is where deception comes into play. Now we have to think about our own betting patterns, and making sure we're not too predictable so as to give our opponent less information. We think about the range of hands he is putting us on, on how to use that our advantage. Here bluffs can become powerful weapons, and slowplays can become useful tools... provided our opponent is not able to accurately read our holdings.

4th Level: "What do I have, what do I think he has, what does he think I have, and what does he think I think he has?" Here we really get into our opponents mind... now we're attempting to make reads based of what we believe he is thinking about our thoughts on him.

As a rule, you can never use thinking more than one level above your opponents level of thinking. For example... if your opponent can only think at the first level, that limits your thinking to the second level when you are involved with him. If he only thinks of his own two cards, and never tries to put you on a hand, then you can't figure out what he thinks you have (level 3)... he's not trying to put you on a hand.


I've found that I'm able to think at the third level a decent majority of the time, but that damn 4th level still eludes me. Where do you fit in? Feel free to post some hand histories in response, and put in notes on your thinking during key points in the hand.

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Blackinks

Donkey Extraordinaire

"Never understimate the power of stupid people in large groups..." - Daryl "Razor" Reaugh

"I went in with the worst of it... and it held up!" - Alicia M

I mostly play at the third level of thought here. While I am occasionally able to reach the fourth level, it's usually because of an obvious play by an opponent (i.e., they'll show a bluff, and play the next hand the exact same way, as they hold their monster).

At the low levels of play ($3 SnGs, first 90 minutes of $1-2 MTTs), I don't even bother going above the first level of play. The donks at this level are so crazy, I don't think they even are playing their cards - their playing their chips.

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1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

im around the 3rd level as well. i dont know if i could go at the 4th level but the stakes i play at dont allow me too anyways. over thinking at lower stakes is a losing proposition because the players dont understand what you are doing and it becomes useless

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im so bad im at negative 4....i dont know what that means but i think its not good, in all seriousness though...i would say mostly i play at 4 when playing with good players i.e. a home game and sometimes i even play at level 5...What do I have, what do I think he has, what does he think I have, and what does he think I think he has, and WHAT DOES HE THINK I THINK HE THINKS OF WHAT I HAVE AND HOW DOES THAT EFFECT MY PLAY.

allow me to explain i play with some very good players on occasion so i really have to mess with them so as to not allow them to get a good read on me. i try my hardest to make them think i think they think i have a good hand. it really confuses the hell out them. then when they try to make a play at me on 4th street because they think im just acting like i have a good hand, i pop them back over the top forcing them to fold, and sometimes ill show just an absolute shit hand so the next time when i make same play ill show a monster and really mess them up...
or i just will never show and normally the third time theyll call down no matter what. i dont know why its always the third time, maybe because they only realize the play after the second time.

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IM KIND OF LIKE ROBIN HOOD, EXCEPT I TAKE FROM THE DONKS AND GIVE TO MY BANK ACCOUNT.

I think you might enter 4th level (and other levels) like Jro says, playing against people you know well and who know you well.

I would say this can also happen online in a long headsup game- when you are both getting into each others heads a bit.

I wouldn't care to number the levels but surely there are mutiple and complex levels I believe, that are extra to those talked about here and are dependant on the bets. For instance, further to level 3 - "... and what does he think I have?" , how about, "What do I think he thinks (not what I have but what..) I'm representing by making that bet?"
That fits into level 3 thinking but there's a difference.

I liked Blackinks post and I think it's completely true and straight to the point.
Those levels can apply to other kinds of guessing/bluffing games. In poker and particularly in no limit holdem, because betting comes into it at every interval, extra little levels of thought are introduced.

I just think players who play regularly, play at multiple levels of thought ( certainly in a THF game against opponents whose game you know a little about, the thoughts are different than they would be in a $5 sng against unknown opponents)

I'm just thinking outloud as I write, but over-analysis isn't good for me and the trick is having a better hand at a showdown and knowing how to make the maximum amount of chips by playing to the level of your opponents thinking ( or ideally one level above) and the latter is one reason why I don't always win - because I get that bit wrong sometimes.

In addition to all the above, you begin to pick up plays that you know will work in certain situations against certain players. You then meet players who know more plays and know how to use them better than you do - and you get outplayed in a hand, rather than out-thought.

Thankfully, I feel I'm still learning and improving and on the whole it's fun.

I just woke up early was unable to get back to sleep, but that's what came out - maybe I'll edit in the morning lol

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