I've been reading this thread for weeks trying to formulate my own opinion on this topic and failing miserably.
The logical side of me....the side that's pretty good in math and in the insurance business....knows that variance, as wickedroller pointed out, is without a doubt true. The
"law of large numbers" says that when you are a 52-48 favorite in a coin-flip. You will win most of the time
Unfortunately, as wicked also pointed out, the variance may not even out in 100 tries....it might take 200, 300 or even 10,000 tries before it evens out.
Nonetheless, the %'s are correct.....otherwise, the %'s wouldn't have been calculated, and odds wouldn't mean squat in this game.
However....
As many of you know, I have this thing called
"Zomination" going on in my poker-life, and it is quite frustrating. The number of times that I go all-in on a hand dominating my opponent who then draws out on me far exceeds the number of times my hand holds. There is nothing truly scientific to back that up, other than several people who watch me play regularly who can vouch for this fact.....hence my namesake.
Now this means one of two things......
1. THe law of large numbers is going to catch up with me, and Lord help any of you involved in a tournament with me when that happens!!!!!!!! (Please, oh PLEASE let this mega-ultra-rush come in a satellite to the WSOP Main Event and continue on through the Main event!!!!!
)
or
2.
There is something else going on. For now, let's refer to this "something" as "luck".
So let's define luck. How about this......
(Good) Luck is the time between the variance so that the law of large numbers works out and you win hands the "correct" number of times.
I don't think so....it goes further than that. We've only been talking about all-in situations, and the variance of the cards...how about the unquantifiable things that occur?
Let's make it simple.....the lottery.
You have a 1 in 13,767,343 chance of winning the Mega-Lotto (that's not the right odds, but go with me here).
13,767,343 each buy 1 ticket--each with a different series of numbers. That means exactly 1 person IS GOING TO WIN the lottery.
Explain how the choice of that 1 person is made. Why is it that #14,332 wins the lottery, but #165,789 doesn't?
Theoretically, if you did the exact same drawing enough times, everyone would win the lottery the same number of times....but that's not the point...the point is at THIS SPECIFIC DRAWING......#14,332 wins.
That's gotta be luck.
How is it that the bad beats seem to always occur at CRITICAL TIMES DURING YOUR TOURNAMENT???? And how is it that the Negraneaus and Ivey's and Helmuths and Brunsons of the world always seem to keep showing up at final tables?
Yes, yes....I know they are good. But no one is
THAT good when......and here's where it gets weird......we are dealing with the
"law of large numbers".....because the law of large numbers (i.e. variance) says it will all equal out. Even if you change the % and give the pros more chance of winning simply because they are good, those people seem to be in it way more than they "should".
Its almost as though there has to be something called "luck" to make the
"law of large numbers" work. Because someone has to win and someone has to lose, and there has to be a probability somewhere to that, so if someone continues to beat the probability of their ratio of losing because they beat the probability that they win races more than the rest of us are they lucky? or is it just another variance???? At what point does it quit getting scientific and just becomes "luck"?????
EXAMPLES:
You make the perfect all-in bet. You've set it up perfectly. Your opponent CAN'T call, he knows he can't call, you know he knows he can't call, but nonetheless says, "Oh what the heck, I know you have me beat, but I'm ready to go home", and calls, and your bluff is blown (or you have him dominated and he THEN sucks out---insult to injury!!!) Explain how my timing can consistently be so bad.
In the OFC yesterday, I was tight/aggressive all the way down to final 63, and was in top 20 in chips. Now, tell me how you would have played this situation.....
You get dealt AQ on the BB. Everyone folds to the cutoff, who happens to be the big stack. He makes a small raise. He's been doing this lately, and stealing quite a few pots. As usual, the button and SB fold. You have about half his chips, so if he loses, he's hurting. You've been quite tight, and have folded to his steals quite a few times, so he has to respect your raise, And, you really need to slap him down so he'll stop trying to steal your BB.
What do you do? You know very well you go over the top and take it down. He calls with KK and it holds up.
I analyzed the situation right. There are probably only 3 hands he can call with: QQ, KK, and AA......and he had one of them. My timing was just wrong. Variance can't explain that. It also can't explain why very similar situations like that occur alot with me (and yes, I realize some can be explained by my donk-like play!!!). How about this one. I was heads-up in a live tourney that was paying $800 to winner and $600 to 2nd. I had been playing the entire tournament so ultra tight, that I made it to headsup even though I had been short-stack from the time we were at 14 players...I simply folded my way to heads-up. The spectators kept telling me I had to loosen up if I wanted a chance at winning it, but yet there I was at the final two (it didn't hurt that 3 of the final table didn't seem to care that I was super-tight and kept calling down my bets when i had the nuts!!!).
Anyways, he has me covered about 2 to 1 and the VERY FIRST HAND, I get 
I raised it my standard raise, and he makes a decent re-raise, and I went all-in without thinking.
Huh???? What the heck is that? That is definitely not tight....even heads-up.
Answer: I didn't feel that the $200 difference was worth a whole lot, and just decided to play any hand that consisted of face cards or suited connectors. That would force his hand and I'd either win or wouldn't. I didn't really care.
He called with A8, and I promptly flopped a 7 and won the hand.
Next hand, he goes all-in, and I call with THE EXACT SAME HAND HE HAD: A8, and I win the tournament with Ace-high.
Did I mention that about an hour earlier, I completely misread a situation, and drew out my inside straight draw to knock out a guy (which put me in the position to compete for the final table)??????
So...my very lengthy, rambling opinion on the subject is.....
Poker has THREE....not two factors to it:
1. Skill.
2. Variance of the cards.
3. Luck.
Which one is the most significant? I'm not sure, but I do know the only one you can control is #1.
ZOM
Luck vs. Skill 
