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The Impact of Luck on the Game of Poker Theory, Advice, Strategies  | | 
04-13-2007, 12:57 AM
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I really enjoyed reading this article because it has explained alot of things to me. I have always considered my self to be a very lucky woman. From the time I was a young kid, from being in High School, I was always chosen for everything and won my fair share of contests, meeting the Oakland A's and making the front page of the Oakland Tribune..I can go on and on.
Im an extrovert, there is no doubt about it. I have been told this my entire life. I can talk about everything and I am always smiling.. I mean ALL the time! Im not shy (never have been) and will go up to people and smile and say hi and start a conversation making them feel comfortable. I smile when I walk by people ...everywhere. I also will turn bad things into good things or just see the good in something. Its the way I am. Even in cards.
I have lived a good life and plan on living alot more of the good life..in everything that I do. I think if people smiled more they would see what I see.
I am a lucky woman.
Cali
__________________
You can cash with skill
You can go deep with skill
You can't win without luck
I Fear No Stack
"Can't win on skill alone, everyone catches a lucky card"
CalifNaughti - PokerStars | | |
04-13-2007, 08:32 PM
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Well, being the person that I am, I believe the days are influenced by the planets and the stars. There are some days it seems we have little or no luck at all and it is extremely important to be more cautious, heed good judgment, fold even some of the best of hands at times, and simply play with skill. Then there seem to be days when we can do no wrong. But in the end I wholeheartedly agree with Dolly. In a lifetime it comes down to 99% skill. | | |
04-14-2007, 03:31 AM
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I believe a better title for the article would have been "The Impact of Variance in Poker". Luck does NOT exist in any form. AA is supposed to lose a certain expected % of the time. Even though it may happen to you 3 times in a row every now and then, you didnt get unlucky, you experienced variance. Variance is a deviation from the expected outcome. You might say, ok smartass maybe I didnt get unlucky, but I definitely received more than my fair share of variance. But no, you didnt. True, some people will experience more variance over a period of time, than others, but the argument for a larger sample size can always be made. As sample size increases variance decreases. Therefore, the best defense for variance is a large sample. The way to achieve a large sample is to practice proper bankroll management. You MUST play at limits that wont leave you broke if you take 2 or 3 or even 10 bad beats. This is not to say that proper bankroll management can overcome poor play, but that it can help your bankroll withstand the inevitable and EXPECTED swings you will experience. So even though you may be plenty talented to play 5-10NL, you will likely find yourself busted if youre playing on a 1-2NL bankroll. Even though you may be able to make correct decisions the majority of the time, variance will likely impact your roll at some point. The best medicine for poker players is to face reality, forget about luck, play well within your limits, and keep in mind that just as variance has downswings, it also swings up. | | |
04-14-2007, 04:05 AM
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No such thing as luck? Of course there is... Over the course of 50 years Poker Player 1 is involved in 10,000 coinflip situations with Poker Player 2 (they only play against each other). PP1 ends up winning 4700 (47%) of these hands whereas PP2 of course wins the other 5300 (53%). No one plays an infinate amount of hands in their lifetime (obviously) so when you break down your lifetime of 50%ers (for the purpose of this example) you can see that PP1 was certainly less lucky than PP2. We understand variance, but what you are saying is based on an unattainable amount of hands whereas each individual person will end up playing a specific, finate amount of hands in their lifetime. The difference between what eventually would have been, and what in fact did happen over the course of PP1s poker career, is the luck factor.
Another scenario that is somewhat interesting... I was involved in 10 coinflip situations in one evening not long ago and lost all 10. Five times I had the overcards and five times I had the pair. I found it funny that while my luck wasn't there that night, the cards broke even (5 holds, 5 outdraws)  | | |
04-14-2007, 05:42 PM
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No luck. That is very amusing. If AA is supposed to win so much of a percentage which to me doesn't mean anything anyway. If I lose 3 AA in a row that is not bad luck. Surely you jest. Recently I was playing and early in the tourney I was dealt AA twice in a row and got no action on the hand so I won 2 small pots and later in the tourney I got AA again. Had 2 callers and almost tripled up. I say that I was unlucky twice in a row with AA early in the game and I was lucky once with AA later in the game. In one hand of poker and by extension every hand of poker EVERYTHING about it is luck when you gamble. Poker is gambling. I say I can win your money and you say you can win mine. The deal of the cards is 100 percent luck. Let's say the person who never played before is dealt AA and the experienced expert is dealt Ace King suited. The AA goes all in and the ace king calls and the AA wins how could you say the more skillful player won. | | |
04-14-2007, 09:06 PM
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I don't think an experienced player would call an all in bet with AKs preflop unless he had the proper odds. Even if he did have proper odds, I doubt the experienced player would make a call there. If I know I'm the better player, I'll win their chips through skill, not through what I hope is a 3:1 favorite but more realistically a 50/50, especially with the possibility that I'm dominated. Experienced player doesn't make that call, plain and simple.
__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League
Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame. | | |
04-14-2007, 10:40 PM
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You get what you get and you dont throw a fit..maybe everyone is pysco analyzing this a lil too much. Some times your top dog and sometimes your the fire hydrant
Cali
__________________
You can cash with skill
You can go deep with skill
You can't win without luck
I Fear No Stack
"Can't win on skill alone, everyone catches a lucky card"
CalifNaughti - PokerStars | | |
04-15-2007, 03:30 PM
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You are probably the best poker player in history Mars. I beleive you are probably the only person on this planet that would not play what many say is the most powerful pre-flop hand in holdem. Remind me next time we play that anytime I want you out of a hand that I should just go all in to drive you out. If you wouldn't call with ace king would you call with aa or kk and how many times would you have aa or kk. I know you love to disagree with me and think less of me than a worm but give me a break. I have personally seen you play cards a lot worse than ak and in fact I have seen you play cards that I would muck time after time. I have seen you raise into a pot with 2 cards hoping to steal the blind, get lucky on the flop or muck the cards after the flop when someone bets. And you say you would not call with ak. I will believe that when it snows in the summer time at the equater.
Last edited by zzbob; 04-15-2007 at 03:36 PM.
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04-15-2007, 04:59 PM
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LUCK,,, Don't want to beat a dead horse... My thought on luck with Texas hold em is, luck won't win you a tournament but will make you lose. When you go in with a great hand and you still lose that is bad luck, Pocket A's against pocket A's and he flushes out that is called bad luck. Just my thought... | | |
04-15-2007, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zzbob  You are probably the best poker player in history Mars. I beleive you are probably the only person on this planet that would not play what many say is the most powerful pre-flop hand in holdem. Remind me next time we play that anytime I want you out of a hand that I should just go all in to drive you out. If you wouldn't call with ace king would you call with aa or kk and how many times would you have aa or kk. I know you love to disagree with me and think less of me than a worm but give me a break. I have personally seen you play cards a lot worse than ak and in fact I have seen you play cards that I would muck time after time. I have seen you raise into a pot with 2 cards hoping to steal the blind, get lucky on the flop or muck the cards after the flop when someone bets. And you say you would not call with ak. I will believe that when it snows in the summer time at the equater. | A lot depends on the context of the situation bob. Your initial scenario put someone who had never played poker before versus an experienced player. I took that as his very first hand he was dealt AA, not somewhere in the middle of a game. The other thing that you would have to take into account is chipstack.
Let's take the now-defunct Bugsy's league as an example - we start with 3k chips, thats 60 blinds to start out with. I would not call an all in from anyone with AKs that first hand. Fast forward through the game, and now let's say I have 4k chips, and you have 1500 chips, blinds are at 100/200 with a 25 ante. You push all in. Now, you have much fewer chips, and are probably starting to get desperate. The chances of you finding a hand that has me dominated in this situation is pretty slim - most likely, you're pushing with 2 high cards or Axs, where I most likely have you dominated, with lesser of a chance of being at a coin flip, and even less of being dominated.
Or, we can change the scenario a bit, and give me more chips - I've been lucky all night, and am standing with 10k chips. Also, i have a low suited connector, something like 67s. Again, if I'm up against 2 high cards, I'm not that much of an underdog, and it's worth that much more to see you leave. I'm not crippled if I lose.
The fact is, relying on a bit of luck in a THF game is a bit of a necessity. Everyone has a lot of skill, and I won't be able to win any given game without some cards at key points (I think any member of THF will agree with me on this). However, if I am playing with a newbie...it will show. It will be easier to pick up on tells, what they play and don't play, etc.
Now...as for AKs being the most powerful preflop hand in Hold'em...why is it that it is also one of the most common hands for someone to go out on in a tourney? It's really simple - people put waaaaaaay too much faith in the hand - they think of AKs as AA. Sure, you have a chance of hitting a straight or a flush, and any pair you make is TPTK...but it really isn't too great of a chance. I just did a quick lookup on the poker odds calculator, AcKc will be 9d4s only 68.93% of the time. Knowing that, would you really call an all in with AKs against an unknown player first hand of the game, before you have any sort of read on the player?
__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League
Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame. | | | Thread Tools | Search this Thread | | | | 
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