I am not sure what to make of this (profit by hand)

I was poking around in poker tracker to see how i was doing with a few things, and something was glaring at me.

In tournament chips, overall I have lost 2,500 with Ace King off suit.

Now, this seems to me like an odd hand for me to be loosing money with in the first place, much less this much money. It turns out that two hands are really behind this loss.

Blinds at 300/600:
*** FLOP *** [Qs 6h 4d]
Adaon6: bets 800
scottman90: raises 1000 to 1800
Adaon6: calls 1000

The turn was check-check and I folded to a bet on the river. Lost 4k chips on this hand.

Hand 2, blinds 300/600:
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Adaon6 [Kd Ac]
Adaon6: raises 900 to 1500
Proguy45: calls 1200
*** FLOP *** [9d Qh 5h]
Proguy45: checks
Adaon6: bets 1800
Proguy45: raises 3000 to 4800 and is all-in
Adaon6: folds

Lost 3.3k chips on this hand.

So I am wondering, am I off to try and play aggressively with AK when I've missed the flop? I have always taken the approach of playing it the same way I would AA in order to fight off someone's ability to read me. The sample size is pretty small, but I'd like some input on how you play AKo when it misses the flop.

__________________
See this space for details:

Playing like it's AA will decrease AK's value over time but increase the value of AA, the key is figuring out if it evens out or you have higher or lower value overall between the two hands.

If you decide none of that really matters, then you should base your post flop play on your read of your opponents. If you know you can outplay them (or have a read that says AK-high is good), go ahead, play it strongly.

__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

I have a tendency to play the flop like you have played them here Adaon.

I think the plays look fine. I suppose much depends on other players. Maybe you just got unlucky and met the wrong players with the wrong cards?

Of course it's nice to mix it up a bit with those AKs but I think that aggression here has to be seen as a good play. I want raise and/or see a flop with AK. You often have both pairs as outs when you miss so I think a bet is justified and gives you info.
If I check there against one opponent( which I might do sometimes) I feel I'm putting myself under pressure and at a disadvantage straight away.

__________________
.



May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

It's all about position with AK as far as I'm concerned. I'm only talking about heads up here, 3 handed is harder to guage what people have. You must read your opponent very well to do this.

First, I'll talk about first to act. I will use your situations as a guide first. Flop comes Qs 6h 4d. That queen is a very scary card for you. If he called a good sized raise from you (preflop) I would put him on either 9's to J's or A-Q, K-Q, A-J, K-J maybe Q-J. A simple check is what I would do, any scare cards when you are out of position are impossible to bet into (unless you have a great read on the player). If he bets, it all depends on the size of the bet, if he places a half-pot sized bet I may reraise because I find that when the player hits the flop they typically try to take down the pot on the flop with a 2/3 to a pot bet. In general, not always, I consider a half pot sized bet to be a sign of weakness. This all depends on the level you're playing at though, I play at about a $20-$30 buy in. So, check the flop - he puts out a half pot sized bet, consider a reraise unless you read otherwise - 2/3-3/4 or greater bet, cut your losses.

Now lets say the same flop comes and you are second to act. Flop comes Qs 6h 4d. He checks to you. If the player checks and has a queen in his hand, his kicker is not great (a 10 at best (he shouldn't really be playing the hand if this is the case, top pair - check), he will simply try to call down to the river assuming no other scare cards come (like a K or A or a flush) - if he calls the raise and checks the turn I would simply check (assuming its a blank) now on the river, depending on the card, a check will mean he has not improved his hand and is not feeling it is a winner, either check it or bet the pot, do not place a value bet here. Back to the topic - if he checks to you, I would bet 2/3 of the pot, because you know he must be calling with something. A check-call is a very strong indication of strength typically, but on this flop, he would not have the balls to do this play with anything less than 33, 66, QQ or maybe A-Q (not usually). You have to figure if the player has K-Q he will bet the flop and try to take it down because if an Ace comes he has no choice but to fold. A good sized raise on the flop will typically mean, I have a queen - I don't want you to make your hand so fold. A small raise typically (at my limit) shows he is trying to buy the pot - reraise him - he should fold, if he has the balls to go all in, he may have a pocket pair or a strong queen. If he checks the turn after you reraise the flop he is prepared to fold.

Second to act - Lets take another example, say the pot comes 2-6-7 rainbow. The only holdings he would feel strong about as first to act is an overpair (because your bet should have knocked out small PP unless he is a gambler). I typically check these because you are either very far ahead (you out kick him and he will only win by pairing) or far behind (he has a PP and you must hit your A or K). But if you want to you can bet a large size of the pot, indicating you have an overpair. He should either fold or raise. Say he raises I would put him on something like 9's-J's. Simply call, if you hit your card on the turn great. If another blank comes off and he leads out, fold and cut your losses, he more likely than not has a bigger PP, but if he checks, I would consider a check on the turn. If he has a made hand on the river and is first to act he would be foolish to check it, so bet the river hard (again assuming its not a scare card).

First to act - same example 2-6-7 rainbow. Check the flop, he knows he has position and knows you probably have high cards and a bet will mean a bluff. Now if he bets I would consider pushing because he may be trying to buy the pot (this all depends on your read of the player). Calling is not an option in my opinion - either fold or raise. A check raise will not be called unless he has a PP. If he calls, be very careful with the turn card, this is what I consider one of the toughest situations, consider his position at the table if he is on the button he may have just been trying to steal it, but if he is in middle position he could have a PP(just as a guideline his position, obviously, does not indicate his hand, but a player on the button can get away with playing weaker hands). This is a tough situation so simply go with your gut, either check or bet, if he comes over the top or bets outright, you have to fold unless its a small bet where you have pot odds.

This is kind of hard to explain, because it really depends on your view of the player (will he play low suited connectors or is he tight) and what limit you are at. At low limits I would not bet without a hand, and in upper limits you must decide how a player would act with a made hand - people always check-call sets, bet at the pot with top pair good kicker, etc.

Four things I always try to do -
1) Keep your losses small & keep your pots big when you know you have the goods (to extract the most chips play your monster like an idiot trying to bluff, i.e. if you hit your set in first position fire a small pot into the pot and check the turn).
2) Play with position.
3) Think about situations where he would bet or check - if the flop comes Q-Q-J rainbow and he bets, he probably has nothing, but if he checks, he may have a beast.
4) A scare card should never be bet into out of position, and in position you should not bet a large piece of the pot for two reasons, (1) if you are representing that the card made your hand, you would not overbet the pot for fear of folding from others, (2) if he has that hand you just dumped a lot of unnessecary chips to him. Always place value bets (2/3 pot) for scare cards (straight possibilities, potential trips) when in position (assuming its not the river, in which case its all about your read).

Tried my best.

Btw, first hand I would say he had nothing, but you played it right, maybe you should have lead out on the river. Second hand he had A-Q, 99, QQ, KK or AA, just as a guess.

OK, AK after the flop.

I could try working out all that stuff, and I'm sure I'd be a better player for it. And it's not that I'm incapable of doing all that, my work CV says that. No, I just can't be arsed. My rule of thumb is this, get it through my thick head that I am now in a bluffing situation, that I may be still ahead or may be ahead later is not in the equation.

So then the question is do I feel like bluffing? That is a balance between what I can afford and position, and, as noted above, how scary the board looks. I won 't spend time figuring the possibilities of precisely which scary hand or hands may be out there, because for a bluff, which one doesn't matter so much. If I can afford a pot size bluff first to speak, then yeah, give the guys a chance to fold, then shut up if they don't. All fold happens often enough to cover that. Then it's a gut feeling balance for other scenarios all the way to the extreme of "all check to me", in which case a bluff is almost mandatory, even if I don't have a big stack.

What I do wrong is I forget the "if I can afford it" bit when out of position and then end up pot committed. But when I've finally trained myself to stop doing that, other results seem to indicate that I'll be turning a profit in the long run without having to think too hard about it. I would make more profit if I thought about it, but I'm here to have fun, not get a headache.