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Go Back   Poker Forums > Texas Hold Em Rooms > Advice & Strategy > Theory, Advice, Strategies

Did I make the right decision?

Theory, Advice, Strategies

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Old 02-15-2005, 11:32 PM
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Carver Lee is offline
 
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You gotta think anytime you CALL an all-in with a mid pocket pair you are looking at a coin-flip at best. You may get lucky once in a while and run into a lower pp but the majority of the time you're going to be dominated by a higher pp or looking at two overs which is a straight 50/50 gamble for all your chips.. and if you're ready to do that the idea is to have someone else make that call against your pocket 8's so you at least have great fold equity in the move.
  
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Old 02-16-2005, 02:04 AM
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Carver said pretty much what i would have. You do NOT want 3 people in on the hand with mid pocket pair. Even if they are desparate. Even if their are are two short stacks. Keep them burried with thier short stacks and let one arise with doubled a short stack, dont let them tripple a short stack. Especially with your money. Chip leader is worse, you have to go all in.

Mid pp will lose to 3 people. odds are just horrible and you dont want to be caught all in with them and 2 callers.

Sure the chip leader may have folded, but you dont need to risk it on 8s, trust your skills and fight him later. I was in a similar situation at mondays quicky. Folded 9s came back and finished very well. You cant rely on toss ups to do the heavy work every tourney. I just think that play was a slap in the face to your own abilities. You'd rather chance it on that then fight for a better situation.
  
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Old 02-16-2005, 02:24 AM
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Default Don't let the hinde sight guru's get u down

Your dam right you did the right thing. to have trip pairs out on the table is rare enough. but to have it at a table of only four. you did right and don't let anyone else tell you different.
  
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Old 02-16-2005, 03:46 AM
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With four people in the game, around 7% of the time someone will have a pocket pair the same time you do. with pocket 8s, half the time it will be better than yours. I dont see someone going all in with pocket pair 2-6, 7 is questionable. So you can have a safe fear of an over pocket pair.

The chance of an over card coming is almost definate. i'd guess 95%. Two over cards maybe 50%. With two people calling you can bet they have your over cards. So imagine either someone having a higher pocket pair, or your alternate, both having overcards. This is four cards over your 8 and only one needing to hit. Worst case they have 12 outs to beat you, you are beat i dont even need to figure that statistic out. Best case scenario they have the same hand A Q - A Q. thats four outs (without factoring suits) thats around 40% without including suits (they may be suited) and thats your best case scenario. You will need to hit your set which comes 11%
------------------------


The only way you would risk going all-in with three callers is if you play with very loose players. Because anyone calling will have a decent hand. So expect to be hoping to get your set. Your odds suck with two callers.

Sorry i have to disagree tony, you should not have risked the chip leader calling.

Last edited by 357MagSix; 02-16-2005 at 03:50 AM.
  
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Old 02-16-2005, 04:47 AM
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IF I WERE SHORT STACKED YA I WOULD HAVE DONE IT THAT WAY BUT IF NOT I WOULD HAVE RAISED BEFORE FLOP AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAYED OUT
MOST TIMES YOU CAN TELL BY HOW THE BETTING ID GOING
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Old 02-16-2005, 09:01 AM
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I think it was a bad move pocket pair's i hate them i rather have 2 high cards any day and evin with any 2 high cards id fold hope the chip leader took him out then id with blinds that high id wait for 2 high cards then go all in depending on how the chip leader is doing id go all in maby evin on a bluff just to get the blind's
  
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Old 02-16-2005, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RllngRckBrw
Last night I was playing in my league game and had made it to the last 4 players. I was close to being tied for second (not really sure who had more) in chips. The first place player had almost tripple what I did, and the fourth place guy was all but eliminated with about 8k in chips (blinds were 2k and 4k) Naturally the fourth player went all in on the big blind. The guy I was tied with for 2ed folded and the chip leader called. I looked down to see pocket 8s and I thought that in order to make a run for the lead I would have to double up at some point, so I went all in. Naturally I was called, and the 4th guy showed his 6s. I grinned from ear to ear. Tht chip leader then thhrew over 9s, and I realized I was all but finished. No one caught anything and the 9s won. Did I make a decent decision in my position, or was that to loose, to early?
Definatly a bad move if you ask me. 1st mistake - was you were out of position.. you didnt mention what position (not tournament position, but Dealer position) you were in. Judging by the one behind you raising, and you re raising into the chipleader I'd say that is not very wise. Had you been in last position you would have been in a better spot to make your decision.

2nd mistake - Mid pairs are not that strong, really only good if you hit a set on the flop, and your only gonna do that about 1 out of 10 times.. thier is a percentage for that but I cant recall the exact figures, I believe it's around 7% of the time.

3rd mistake was going up against the chip leader. You never want to go up against the chip leader if you dont have too. Instead of going all in maybe you coulda called the 8K (depending on your stack) to see if you could catch a set.. or just get out of the way and allow the chip leader to call and hopefully knock him out for you. You efectively eliminated yourself from the tournament.. I would call that a bad move.
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Old 02-18-2005, 06:05 PM
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I guess I must elaborate on my post. The difference between 2ed and 3ed was only $100 and in my oppinion the $1,300 for 3ed was fine with me. I was playing to win, and I knew that inorder to do that I was gonna have to take a big bite out of the chip leader. So I gave it a shot. I am not defending my choice, just simply adding my rational to my previous post.
  
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Old 02-18-2005, 10:06 PM
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In your position, you would have probably lost all your chips anyway. If the flop came like J 2 4, and you had only called the all-in preflop, you probably would of bet a lot if not all in, and the chipleader probably woulda called, and you would of lost anyway. Tough position. I wouldn;t of went all in like that though
  
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Old 02-22-2005, 05:05 AM
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u raised all in w/ poket 8's when u felt u needed to double up. thats not a bad play at all. you were playin to win and u took your chances. in a lot of cases your pocket 8's would be good. not a bad play at all.
  
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