stealing and bluffing

Hi all.I play holdem for less then a year so kinda new to this.I read someone post saying that you couldnt win a tournament without stealing and bluffing.I agree even if i did without it.I played very tight and was lucky i guess.I tried to steal and bluff few times but it never works for me lol.I often make the final table but with short stacks and i know i got bluff and steal at the end.So what is the magic recipe to be on the right side of the bluff lol.Another question which may sounds dumb but would tells me a lot.Let say you got AA on preflop and everybody goes all in .What is the % of chances that AA will win?Ty for answering.

Hey Kag, glad to see you decided to post here .

There are a couple key factors to consider when deciding where to bluff:

First off (and quite possibly most important), there's the skill level of your opponent. Simply put, beginning players are very hard to bluff - they'll call anything with top pair no kicker. So, simply put...don't bother bluffing them.

Next, make sure your bluff tells a story, you really do need to sell it or people we see right through it. If you've been playing aggressively, and check a flop of KT7, then bet the turn hard (K), no one's going to believe you have the trips! Now, let's say you hold QT on a board of JK78, with 2 clubs out there. You call a small-medium sized bet, but miss your open ended draw. You do notice, however, that a third club hit the board. If you believe your opponent doesn't have the flush, you may very well be able to bluff him out of the pot, as a strong bet suggests that you hit your flush (just be sure that your opponent doesn't have it, though, as this could put you in a world of hurt).

Finally, there's my favorite bluff, the check-raise bluff (NOTE: THIS PLAY SHOULD BE USED SPARINGLY, IF AT ALL). This works best when you are in the blind, and a small pair hits the flop, with another low card (e.g., 664). Let's say you have 57, simply to give you some outs if you are called. Check-raising has a number of benefits here, as it portrays you holding one of the 6s. Now, if you happen to run into someone who does hold the 6, you're in a lot of trouble...but that's why you have to be very careful using this play. There are other positions where this may work, but for the most part you just have to get a feel for the table before trying anything too tricky. Again, notice that I told a story here - if it's not believeable I'm calling you the entire way down.

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1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

Also, keep in mind when bluffing, part of the story is the bet. Take notice of what size bets get called, and where the "folding point" is. Often, you can recognize what types of bets will get called, and what bets everyone will fold to. Keep in mind your opponents chip stack when deciding to run a bluff or not. Never try to bluff the small stack... he's already desperate. He'll move all his chips in just hoping to get lucky. Be careful trying to bluff the big stack... he can afford to lose some chips. Your target should be the guys in the middle. The middle stacks often tighten up waiting on that one big hand to double up and move up to the land of the large stack. They will fold the marginal hands way more often than the short stack or big stacks.

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Blackinks

Donkey Extraordinaire

"Never understimate the power of stupid people in large groups..." - Daryl "Razor" Reaugh

"I went in with the worst of it... and it held up!" - Alicia M

Ok some good points raised so far - here is how i view it which is rather tecnical. I also recommend kaarts bluffing guide (recommended threads) as this is a great starting point (and not as tecnical as this)

OK i distinguish between what I class as positional bets and bluffs. Things like continuation bets, aggressive play, follow on bets (preflop to flop etc). Positional betting is something you learn the more you play. the cheaper the buy in the less position plays you should be making (early in tourneys anyway)

A "proper bluff" to me should have the following:-

a) you have a solid read on what your opponent has and it is better than yours (you can include betting to stop a tie if you like on a made board though)

b) you have a solid read on how your opponent would play the hand that you are sure he has and you know he will read you as having stronger than him and fold

Alas it is not a perfect world and you often will not have this. Thats where percentage bluffs and positional bets come into play. Before i go on to these remember that at certain points in a tourney you need to adjust your reads. There are some players who are normally solid who will not be able to throw a big pot late tourney and also that just before the bubble many people will be tighter than usual. Also just after the bubble people who were previously tight will sometimes call on anything so be careful!!!

Where you dont have this you are making a percentage bluff. With the first class of play if you get called you are at fault and have misplayed the hand. With percentage bluffs this is not the case at all. You can get called, get knocked out of a tourney and still have made the correct play.

In low buyins you must beware of percentage bluffs unless you are latish on in a tourney as often people will just call you cannot rely on them making the "correct" play. These plays should be kept under control as otherwise you could get in real trouble.

You have to time percentage bluffs carefully. Remember that in tourneys survival is key and chips are like bullets if you throw some in a risky bluff and lose you might not have enough to survive future battles or may have to rely on getting lucky in a preflop all in.

Classic percentage bluff. "you have xx and you are sure that your opponent has a paired king and a poor kicker. River is an ace and you bet biggish representing an ace. You have to be up against a generally tight player to do this but you are not certain that he will fold." This play can even be done when you have no detailed read on him but maybe he passes and the pot is worth making a stab at. There are some cases in which a bet should be automatic. I do not see these are "bluffs" but mearly standard aggressive play. A classic example would be flop comes A high and you called a raise with j10s. Flop is a73 rainbow and your opponent checks to you. If you do not think you are up against a check raiser/ slow player then a bet there should be automatic if it is just the two of you in the pot. If you do this too often you might get a reraise though so be careful.

As to the general proposition that you need to bluff to win a tourney i would say this is not true i have won many tourneys without really bluffing at all. However if you do not do much bluffing then your defensive play should be pretty strong as otherwise you will need a high percentage of excellent hands to stand a good chance.

In 20$+ tourneys (particularly 50+) defensive play is much stronger than in lower levels. This is partly because you are up against players who are much stronger defensively and partly because you get fewer freebies in higher levels and must make the most of your chances and call sometimes when in a lower level you might just wait for someone to do something stupid.

At lower levels the standard of defensive play is poor. You can be successful in low buyins without this though but in higher levels you would struggle. Defensive play is something that is given insufficient consideration but if you have good defensive play you will not need to bluff very often.

You do have to destinguish between those who will call anything (are reactive/automatic rather than defensive). But if you are up against a tight / solid person who is not defensively strong then they are easy pickings for positional raises/percentage bluffs.

If you dont do well bluffing then i recommend honing your defensive play and focus on learning when you can call with slightly weaker hands than normal. there is so much overbetting at lower levels that this is oft more profitable than actually bluffing.