profit in SNG's

Just a little "did you know" type information.............

A baseball player only needs to be succesful 30% of the time when up at bat in order to be considered one of the top 10% hitters in baseball. That means he will fail 7 out of 10 times but still be considered a feared hitter.

I consider myself a very competetive person. When I compete in something i expect to win. Its not possible to win everytime but it got me to thinking. If 30% is good enough for a baseball player what about poker? So I decided to log some results.

Heres what i came up with:

I'm taking my results over a 100 games played in $5 SNG's.

With an initial investment of $5.50 per game x 100 games = $550.00

1st place pays $22.50, 2nd place pays $13.50, and 3rd place pays $9.00

I'll use the average place of (2nd = $13.50) for this calculation.

$550 (initial investment) / $13.50 (average amount won) = 40.7%

You need to finish "In The Money" 40.7% of the time to break even. Breaking even puts you in the top 95% of poker players on the internet.

At 41% you are considered a profitable on-line SNG poker player.

if you finish ITM (In The Money) 42% your profit will be = appx 3% profit

43% ITM = 5.5% profit (What your average CD or Money Market account is yeilding you)

44% ITM = 8.0% profit

45% ITM = 10.5% profit (If your winning 45% you should be considered a quality player)

46% ITM = 13% profit

47% ITM = 15.4% profit

48% ITM = 17.8% profit

49% ITM = 20.3% profit

50% ITM = 22.7% profit (Gaining vurtually 25% on your money you should consider playing poker for a living if you have a sufficient bankroll to invest)

If your finishing ITM (In The Money) more than 50% of the time then you are extremely lucky or a proffessional poker player, or both...LOL


So if your losing 6 and winning 4 then you are OK. So don't feel bad. If your winning 5 and losing 5 you are way above the rest. Anything in between and your profitable

I think your numbers are a little off for taking an average of 2nd. If you total the values, and divide by 3, an equal distribution of finishes would average $15. (which would make a difference of $45 in your example)

On the other hand, in a typical 10 game stretch the results of a winning player would look more like ($1+$0.10 sit and go)
1st - 1 - $5
2nd - 1 - $3
3rd - 2 - $6

Gross winnings of $12. Paid entry: $11. Net profit: $1. Now in this case, it's a 40% in the money rate, but it's more about how you finish then how often. If you never finished third, but won a second game, your gross winnings would be $13 with a 30% in the money rate.

By the way, great topic, I love number crunching like this.

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I believe that $6 is supposed to be $4 If you are calculating a 10 man SNG which i was using the 9 man format of stars, but i understand where you are coming from.

Taking the $15 average would even booster the profit % even more which is what I probably should of done.

In that case finishing ITM 40.7% would not make you a break even player but rather a profitable player at 11%. Rather, merely finishing ITM 36.7% of the time would make you a break even player.

As for the "how" you finish vs. the "how often". I agree that it definitely makes a difference. An average placement of 1.9 is more profitable than a 2.0.

You can also factor in the fact that you should usuaally be getting something for that $0.50 rake. On Pokerstars this likely means a bonus where you are geting it all back. This can raise your profit by 10% on it's own.

True, bonus point programs are +EV, but I don't know what your win rate of bonus points is on cash games vs sit and gos.

BSQUAD, you are right, I originally had planned to say 3 3rd place finishes, they are easier to get, but decide to go down on the expectation and didn't change the other number. My bad.

I didn't think about you working this from a 9 man table, I'll have to take another look at that. Although theoretically, it would be worse expectation for you if you have a 10% fee on the game. Then again, if you move up the limits, the fee goes down, so you need less performance to show a profit.

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Yeah Adaon, if you could take a look at it i would appreciate it. I'm no math scholar I'm just trying to show the % of times you need to place in the money in order to be profitable. I think many people are curious as to what the % is. Using your method of 45$/3=15$ average payout per placing ITM on a $9 table my calculations come to 36.7%. Here is my math. Maybe you could look it over for any errors. (36.7 x $15 = $550.50) If I were to play 100 games @ $5.50 that would be $550.00. Seems accurate. But like i said I'm no math scholar. Using my original method of $13.50 (2nd place winnings in a 9 man SNG at stars) my break even % was 40.7%.

Well, the first thing is that you have to switch your base from a 10 base (like I did) to a 9 base.

So lets take a survey of 9 games. 9*5.5 = $49.5
1st - 1 - $22.5
2nd - 1 - $13.5
3rd - 1 - $9
would be $45.

Over 18 games at that rate $90 to $98 in buy ins. So you would need 1 more 3rd place to run a very modest profit. of 5.5 cents per game. That would mean, 7 in the money finishes in 18 games or 38.8%

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1 22.5 22.5 3.75
2 13.5 27 4.5
3 9 27 4.5
12.75
550/12.75 = 43.14

Like Adaon, i think it would be more appropriate to assign weights to where u would finish. So i would say inorder for some1 to break even, they are look at about 43% which isnt much different from your calculations.

You probably also need to factor in the level of competition you are likely to face at different buyin's. At lower level's you should expect a higher ROI & ITM since the skill level tends to be worst.

Does anyone have or know of a program which keeps track of all ur sit n go stats, and calculates profits and such? This would seem to be very helpful and if some1 would be willing to post a page of their sit n go stats that would greatly appreciated.