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Short Stacked....Do you try and double up on garbage or fold your big blind? Theory, Advice, Strategies  | | 
03-17-2006, 01:34 AM
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There is no right or wrong move here...remember, we're talking about a game that involves a decent amount of luck.
Granted, by folding the big blind, even if you doubled up from the small blind you'd still be a major short stack, but as you said - there weren't any other major short stacks at the table. You're all ins will always be called by at least one big stack because they want to get rid of you, and even after a double up you still don't have much. If you had gone all in with your 63 and had doubled up to 12k, then granted, you have twice as much as if you had waited two hands, but you still have only 6 blinds left...clearly an all in or fold situation still.
When you reach this point of a tournament the only thing you can go by is...Are you feelin' lucky? | | |
03-17-2006, 03:01 AM
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After reading this thread and thinking about it I decided there had to be a more informed way to make this decision. A lot of subjective replies here as was my opinion as well. I think it has mostly to do with you style of play, tight players folding and hoping for a better hand, aggressive players pushing it in and taking the risk. So I decided to look at some numbers.
I assume this overall question deals with being on a short stack to the point that you most likely can’t buy a pot and you will get called. Just for establishing a reference point I will assume I get favorable odds to push my short stack in with either any Pocket pair or any Ace. This can surely be debated but for this analysis this is what I used. I also did all these calculations myself so if you find errors please point them out.
There are 1,326 (100%) unique starting hands. (This does not take into consideration which card comes first or second, that actually doubles the number above).
There are 78 Pocket pair combinations, 5.88%. (Each card value (13) has 6 possible combinations).
There are 126 Ace anything combinations, 6 of these are Pocket aces covered in the 78 PP above, leaving a total of 120 or 9.05%.
I you add these two together you get 198 possibilities or 14.93% this equates to odds of 85.07 : 14.93 against or 5.7 : 1.
If I am figuring this correct then you could expect to catch one of these holdings every 6 hands. This by no means is a way to make decision since many other variables always effect all decisions, but I think it does give some insight into what you might expect to be dealt between this big blind and the next one if you fold and wait.
Please correct me if you find any errors in this thing. | | |
03-17-2006, 05:31 AM
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While I didn't do a throrough analysis of your analysis, the math seems correct. However, as we all know the math is only how things SHOULD turn out...not how they WILL turn out. Yes you can expect Ax or a pocket pair every 6 hands, but we've all gone on cold streaks before (we've also gone on hot streaks before). When you're this low on chips, it really is best to push 'em in when you're feelin luckiest. Believe me, I'm normally one to play the odds, but at this point do you really want to risk getting blinded out waiting for the perfect hand? If you have more blinds (say, 10), then I'd agree with you, say that you should wait for one of these hands, but when you're this low and are likely to have more than one caller when you do push your chips...hey if you're feelin the 72o, I say go for it. | | |
03-17-2006, 09:15 AM
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Yes, the bottom line when you are SS is that you absolutely have to get lucky. Having said that, I would have folded both hands in question. I consider myself a very good SS player even though I just stated you have to get lucky, maybe thats the reason I consider myself good at it 
You started the scenario with 5600 in chips (I assume there are no antes). In this situation I am not concerned with getting them all in on either blind because you have a full orbit before they hit you again and even if you fold both blinds and then win later in the orbit you will have more chips than you started with: Assuming you are able to win a hand in said orbit you would be down to 2600 chips after blinds and worst case scenario on your win it that everyone folds except the BB (your 2600, BBs 2600 and SBs 1000 = 6200) and you can start the decision making process new.
Silly as it sounds, in that situation Im looking for anything that I would call a small raise with in better situation even though some of the hands are worse than K4s. Im looking for a small pair, a suited A... but Im also looking for a hand such as JTs. JTs Id call a small raise with in another situation, K4s I wouldnt even consider.
Its 3am and I'm not sure if what I said makes sense, but I have come back from 40 chips to win in a one table Sng (waited 4 hands before putting them in), 200 chips to win at the FT of a WSOP triple shootout (waited 2 orbits to make my stand) and 450 chips at 300/600blinds to win in a 900+ person $20 MTT (paid $50 ante 3 times before putting them in) so there 
Ok, Im going to bed now 
Last edited by FinK22; 03-17-2006 at 09:21 AM.
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03-17-2006, 07:18 PM
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Quote: |
Originally Posted by FinK22 Yes, the bottom line when you are SS is that you absolutely have to get lucky. Having said that, I would have folded both hands in question. I consider myself a very good SS player even though I just stated you have to get lucky, maybe thats the reason I consider myself good at it
You started the scenario with 5600 in chips (I assume there are no antes). In this situation I am not concerned with getting them all in on either blind because you have a full orbit before they hit you again and even if you fold both blinds and then win later in the orbit you will have more chips than you started with: Assuming you are able to win a hand in said orbit you would be down to 2600 chips after blinds and worst case scenario on your win it that everyone folds except the BB (your 2600, BBs 2600 and SBs 1000 = 6200) and you can start the decision making process new.
Silly as it sounds, in that situation Im looking for anything that I would call a small raise with in better situation even though some of the hands are worse than K4s. Im looking for a small pair, a suited A... but Im also looking for a hand such as JTs. JTs Id call a small raise with in another situation, K4s I wouldnt even consider.
Its 3am and I'm not sure if what I said makes sense, but I have come back from 40 chips to win in a one table Sng (waited 4 hands before putting them in), 200 chips to win at the FT of a WSOP triple shootout (waited 2 orbits to make my stand) and 450 chips at 300/600blinds to win in a 900+ person $20 MTT (paid $50 ante 3 times before putting them in) so there
Ok, Im going to bed now | and just what were ya doing up till 3am? <wink> = X
wel..I have to say that I consider you a very good ss player..having witnessed first hand what kind of luck comes your way..a very lucky man you are FinK..oops! in leiu of St. Patricks Day..make that O'Fink! Gets ya free drinks hehehe
Cali
__________________
You can cash with skill
You can go deep with skill
You can't win without luck
I Fear No Stack
"Can't win on skill alone, everyone catches a lucky card"
CalifNaughti - PokerStars | | |
04-30-2006, 06:44 PM
| | | | easy for me
Quote: |
Originally Posted by fonzerelli_79 Was playing on sunday in a live game. We're down to the last 15 or so players of a 90+ player tournament. The blinds go up pretty swiftly in the game and i was never ahead in chips during the whole tournament. Nevertheless i was still in there and definately in with a chance.
3 tables left. Im sitting with 5600 chips. The blinds are at 750/1500.
2 or 3 people get knocked out at one of the other tables and we move down to 2 tables. My table is the one that splits up. So we all got placed between the two cards and due to the card i picked i got put under the gun...doh!. Not what you want when short stacked
My first hand was absolute garbage...something like J2, so i mucked them. The blinds move up to 1,000/2,000. Im big blind and get dealt   .
Before i even had a chance to look a guy who was medium stack raises up to 10,000 chips. Everyone folded and it came round to me. I took a while to decide - should i stick in the rest of my 3600 chips or do i take the chance and hope for a good hand on my small blind. I eventually decided to fold and go all in regardless of what two cards i got.
So down to 3600 chips. Someone again raises to 10,000 and i call. I hadnt even looked at my cards. He turned over A2 and had   ....which wasnt too bad considering the hand he raised with. Unfortunately, he hit a full house and put me out - lol.
Now i know that at that stage and being short stacked my fate was really out of my hands. However, im curious as to what everyone would have done.
looking back i think i should have called on my big blind. There is no doubt i would have been behind but it was a chance to double up to 12,200 chips whilst folding and going allin on my small blind would see my only going to 7200 heads up if i won....anymore would have required me to beat more people and that was very likely when you consider my allin wouldnt have even been a 1 blind raise. In comparison the original heads up scenario would have been better.
Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing....infact, just after i folded i thought to myself 'why didnt i call that'. Ive been in similar positions before and folded and then came back and finished well but i really should have went for it here.
When i put in my big blind of 2,000 chips i really should have called with any two cards | easy call for me ..fold and wait till u have decent cards to play.all u need to play is a chip and a seat  | | |
05-05-2006, 10:41 PM
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OK so you have a dew hands before your next blind and yes you are very short but you said only one more short stack so really if you do get a good starting hand and go all in you are not going to scare anyone off and get a few callers which could triple or quad you up playing a hand that you want to play not one you feel forced to play. | | |
05-07-2006, 06:42 PM
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Dude at the top, have you ever just had that feeling where you were going to win? Well thats what I get. and when I'm short stacked, I love it...lol So it doesnt really matter what cards I get. | | |
05-09-2006, 08:01 PM
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To me it really would depend on the payout structure of the tourney, is there much difference between 20 and 15th, if I could benefit by hanging around and letting a couple other players go out then I fold both those hands, if my only chance at the money is the final table or there is no difference between say 18th and 10th im all in with the three six suited, I actually prefer that hand to the King 4 the reason for this being if I call with that King I am thinking the guy might turn over K 10, or AK with a 10k raise in live poker would expect him to have a king or ace. however with the three six im confident i have two live cards not to mention they are suited and connected so you have some possible draws, thats how i look at it. | | |
05-09-2006, 08:08 PM
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Quote: |
Originally Posted by fonzerelli_79 Was playing on sunday in a live game. We're down to the last 15 or so players of a 90+ player tournament. The blinds go up pretty swiftly in the game and i was never ahead in chips during the whole tournament. Nevertheless i was still in there and definately in with a chance.
3 tables left. Im sitting with 5600 chips. The blinds are at 750/1500.
2 or 3 people get knocked out at one of the other tables and we move down to 2 tables. My table is the one that splits up. So we all got placed between the two cards and due to the card i picked i got put under the gun...doh!. Not what you want when short stacked
My first hand was absolute garbage...something like J2, so i mucked them. The blinds move up to 1,000/2,000. Im big blind and get dealt .
Before i even had a chance to look a guy who was medium stack raises up to 10,000 chips. Everyone folded and it came round to me. I took a while to decide - should i stick in the rest of my 3600 chips or do i take the chance and hope for a good hand on my small blind. I eventually decided to fold and go all in regardless of what two cards i got.
So down to 3600 chips. Someone again raises to 10,000 and i call. I hadnt even looked at my cards. He turned over A2 and had ....which wasnt too bad considering the hand he raised with. Unfortunately, he hit a full house and put me out - lol.
Now i know that at that stage and being short stacked my fate was really out of my hands. However, im curious as to what everyone would have done.
looking back i think i should have called on my big blind. There is no doubt i would have been behind but it was a chance to double up to 12,200 chips whilst folding and going allin on my small blind would see my only going to 7200 heads up if i won....anymore would have required me to beat more people and that was very likely when you consider my allin wouldnt have even been a 1 blind raise. In comparison the original heads up scenario would have been better.
Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing....infact, just after i folded i thought to myself 'why didnt i call that'. Ive been in similar positions before and folded and then came back and finished well but i really should have went for it here.
When i put in my big blind of 2,000 chips i really should have called with any two cards | I would have done the same thing.
What you did was smart, and I think what the other one was doing was smart, too - trying to shove the shorter stack out
you were in the disadvantage
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