Halvey and self-deprication

Since I have honored Halvey's request to not give him advice I will start a new topic here and just post a little about my own experiences and maybe the rest of you will give him advice in lieu of my post. At Halvey's age I had had the life experiences of a 40 year old. I had had a baby(gave it up for adoption) with a pastor's daughter. I was the only white male from the state of Idaho in that decade to be accepted to an Ivy League school. I graduated at the top of my class and had nearly 2 years of college courses under my belt. Since then I have packed at least as many experiences under my belt, some good and some not so. I passed up Yale for Albertson College of Idaho with full intent of going to Medical school. I never wanted to be a doctor, I just wanted to be able to make enough money to fund my own private research. I was accepted to the University of Washington primary care program in 1997. I passed that up to. During college I ran a segment of a USDA laboratory in Kimberly, Idaho. You see those round fields when you fly over the countryside? I was on the team that did the vast majority of research on that. Its called center-pivot irrigation and was the biproduct of our soil conservation project. I moved to Vegas in 1999. I know every game inside and out: Blackjack, Craps, roulette, and even poker. Vegas ate me up and spit me out several times. Never have done a drug in my life (including pot). I never got into the illicit sex scene. That only left gambling. I thought I could make it as a card counter. A noted mafioso's nephew called me one of the best he had ever seen. I suffered the same fate most do, lack of bankroll. I worked 60 to 80 hours a week just to try and put together enough to attack it again. It was hard to find jobs at casino's that had kicked me out for counting 6 months earlier. It took me about 5 years before I finally settled down and found a niche that suited me. I could ramble on for hours about the story of my life, but this is not about me. This is about something I have learned. There is a moral here. Things are great when you are winning. When a win is close in the rear view mirror you feel unbeatable. Don't let that unbeatable feeling overwhelm you. Remember objects in the rearview mirror can often become distorted. Stay humble even at your greatest achievment, because believe me, people with more potential, bigger bankrolls, and more experience have busted out far ahead of you. They have paved the way and know some of the obstacles. Each person can learn something from someone else. Every person on this planet: A. Is a degenerate. B. Is a recovering degenerate. C. Has the propensity to become a degenerate. Don't believe the studies that say 2%. Those studies were conducted in Las Vegas and AC when only 2% of the countries population was able to reach those sites with any frequency. Stay humble and grounded.

69madman69,

Your note should be mandatory reading for every yahoo who thinks he can make a living gambling. If odds are the only way to express this to them, they should understand they have a better chance of being an astronaut.

To take this one step further to be a gambler that makes big bucks every year, you have a better chance to be an astronaut that actually goes into space.

To be a successful and happy gambler, without a million hard luck stories, you have a better chance to have walked on the moon.

Jim

I'm not out here to make a living, I play cards because its fun, for some of you maybe it is your income for me its not, I play because I like to play and I feel I'm pretty decent at it

I couldn't agree with you more. Except the part of you being decent at it! :P

Jim

madman, that was cool. I, for one, enjoy learning a little 'background' on the different types of players, especially those that know what they're talking about. With that said, and jiminoregon touched on it, let me ask this.

With the odds of winning/losing being what they are, how do professional poker players make a decent living at this game? I mean, it just seems to me that for every win, there are five losses (not finishing in the money) to follow. It's kinda like with the police department, one oh shit can wipe out five attaboys.

Do the pros just know money management better or what?

Thanks!!

__________________
One bad call can wipe out five good raises.

Knighty, I would say that the reason the better professional poker players make money is because I can't think of the term that fits, but poker is not a game that has certain tangibles that regular "casino games" have. That is, all casino games are structured with rules giving the house a built in mathmatical advantage, so that over the long run against hundreds and thousands of players, the casino is virtually guaranteed of winning. Blackjack, which except for a couple of wagers that can be made at craps is the casino game that has the lowest house advantage, still is a game that favors the house. Not counting card counters that is. Before getting into poker, my trips to Atlantic City were strictly for playing blackjack...I do not count, I could do it, not perfectly but it is not really that difficult. But against eight decks shoes the deck so seldom will offer card counters the opportunity to make wagers with the game actually in their favor, that for me card counting is just not worth the trouble. Anyway, if you play blackjack according to "basic strategy", that is doing what computer simulations have revealed to be the optimum play with any combination of cards you have and what card the dealer is showing, the house advantage is only about 1/2 of 1%. But casinos rake in the money at blackjack because there are SO many STUPID players that do not make the optimum play.

I could go on and on about casino games, but back to your original question of how pros can consistently make money, well it's because the players are not playing against the house, but against each other. That is, I could sit down at a blackjack table with the best pros in the world and do exactly as good or bad as I would sitting with a bunch of rubes. And of course that would be suicidal in poker. Because in blackjack we are all playing against the house as individuals, and in poker against each other of course. Now players do have to overcome the house rake, but a good player has no problem doing that. Besides, if you are playing in a raked game as opposed to having to pay an hourly fee, the only player actually being "raked" is the winner of each particular pot. That is, if you fold hand after hand you are not paying anything to just sit there. But that's also the big reason you don't get crap as far as comps if you are a poker player, the casinos don't make much off their poker tables...not like online sites do, that's for sure.

I often like to compare poker with pool - it is not how good YOU are that matters, it's how good your opponents are. Take Minnesota Fats for example. He was one of the most overrated players in the history of pool - but he made money by knowing who he could beat and who he couldn't, or setting up proposition games where he knew he had the edge.

Back to poker - all a good player has to do to be successful is to play where he is better than most of the other players at the table. Short-term, anything can happen, but long term the laws of probability virtually assure he will be a winner. And the explosion of poker in the past couple of years has made istjust so much easier for more and more pros to become consistent winners - instead of beating up on each other, they are feeding off the fish schools that have swum in.

It is harder for the better pros to win tournaments because of the huge number of entries into tourneys now, but a lot easier for them to consistently make money. And applying that to raked games, all a pro has to do is know he is going to make enough off the poorer players to overcome the rake and any other expenses. The typical "grinder" like Knish in Rounders, those guys are absolutely loving the recent tremendous increase in poker players.

Maybe I myself am being overconfident, or I have just been getting lucky. I hardly consider myself a great player. But I have improved my game in limit poker to the point where I honestly feel I am as good or better than most of the players in the average game I sit down at. Trick is to not play at a level that makes you an average or worse player at the table.

Let's assume that in the average game I sit at that I am only the 4th best player of the ten players at the table. Impossible to really rank from 1-10 but anyway, let's just assume that. That means I am worse than three players...but better than six. Over the long run I should make money, and enough to overcome the rake as well. That hardly means I will make enough to give up my day job, but I should be able to see my bankroll slowly edge up over time. Applying that to professionals is really the same thing - in a tournament, again it's impossible to actually define this, but let's say an "average" pro plays in a tourney with 1,000 entries, if he is about the 100th or 150th or so best player, over time he should be able to make money with no problem. Before the poker explosion, the a"average" tourney our pro sat in might have 400 entries and he might still be the 100th or 150th best player, so it's a lot easier nowadays for a lot of pros to make more money than they used to. Like I said, it is of course harder for players to win as many tournaments, but easier to consistently make money.

Notice I said LIMIT though when talking about myself - limit is to no-limit as checkers is to chess. No-limit is a FAR different game. Plus I am talking about low limit poker, 2/4, 3/6, etc. where bluffing is not that much a part of the game as say, 10/20 and up. That is also a far different game, one I am nor ready for yet that'd for sure.

Sorry if I rambled on too long and kind of got off the subject a bit...

Great post mule. I especially like the part where you compare poker to pool. I have said that myself sometimes. My only problem is that I find my game dropping to the level of the player I am playing against. Same as in pool. I wind up have to run the table at the end to get out of a jamb, and in poker I wind up having to set a trap with a good hand and let the other guy try to take me out.

__________________
Just good enough to think I am good enough.

I have to agree....excellent post mule and thanks. It made perfect sense. Of course, you're right, with the sheer numbers of newbies signing on to play, it's relatively easy pickings for a seasoned veteran. *sigh* I can't wait till they're through pluckin' me!

__________________
One bad call can wipe out five good raises.