My biggest suckout ever...

Ever had one of those days when you seem to hit every set, make every draw, call all the big bluffs, make that str8 flush? I had one of those today. Well, until one of my sets got drawn out on by a flush. It really amazes me how willing players are to put their entire stack up to hit a flush draw. Regardless, I still had a very good day. It helps that it came right after two poor days as well.

Here it is. You may remember that I was on the other end of one of these about a month ago. Damn it feels good!


PokerStars Game #19925179390: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2008/08/26 - 20:57:16 (ET)
Table 'Pollux III' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Giffer ($169.55 in chips)
Seat 2: mf115 ($87.10 in chips)
Seat 3: ironOne ($184 in chips)
Seat 4: oshan2 ($32 in chips)
Seat 5: stergio1 ($82.70 in chips)
Seat 6: Noa Stephan ($186.10 in chips)
Seat 7: MightyScrot ($200 in chips)
Seat 8: Dinero2005 ($219.65 in chips)
Seat 9: markiepooh99 ($198 in chips)
Noa Stephan: posts small blind $1
MightyScrot: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Dinero2005 [9d 9h]
Dinero2005: calls $2
markiepooh99: raises $4 to $6
Giffer: folds
mf115: folds
ironOne: folds
oshan2: folds
stergio1: folds
Noa Stephan: folds
MightyScrot: folds
Dinero2005: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [9s Qs Jh]
Dinero2005: checks
markiepooh99: bets $10
Dinero2005: raises $20 to $30
markiepooh99: raises $50 to $80
Dinero2005: raises $133.65 to $213.65 and is all-in
markiepooh99: calls $112 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($21.65) returned to Dinero2005
*** TURN *** [9s Qs Jh] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [9s Qs Jh 9c] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Dinero2005: shows [9d 9h] (four of a kind, Nines)
markiepooh99: mucks hand
Dinero2005 collected $396 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $399 | Rake $3
Board [9s Qs Jh 9c 3s]
Seat 1: Giffer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: mf115 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: ironOne folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: oshan2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: stergio1 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Noa Stephan (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: MightyScrot (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Dinero2005 showed [9d 9h] and won ($396) with four of a kind, Nines
Seat 9: markiepooh99 mucked [Jc Jd]

Obviously, my read was a little off here. I have notes on this player and have a lot of respect for his play. From UTG +1 KT/8T were certainly not in his range so I ruled that out. At the time I was thinking AKs, AJs or ATs with flush draws. That or AA or KK. QQ or JJ just didn't enter my mind. It retrospect it makes perfect sense though.

Without seeing the result, should I have been able to fold this or is this a cooler hand for both of us?

__________________

If you flop a set and can rule out a flopped straight or flush for your opponent...can't fault your play. Unless you have an insane read on your opponent it would be the equivalent of laying down KK preflop.

__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

Finally some justice for when that guy hit quads on a lower set awhile back eh.

Dangerous flop for you I would have assumed if he calls/raises my raise he has at LEAST a pair with straight draw. You can't usually push them out when they have that strong of a hand so I would have slowed down until I could see if any more cards come out that help a straight draw. Besides if he had KT which is a deffinite possibility in that situation i would have like to see the board pair up and then strike him.

Whenever the board flops 3 cards within 4 royal ranks of each other slow down. Chances are they have two pair, pair with straight draw, or a made straight. All of those hands can spell big trouble for you in rings.

That's a good point. I think a big leak in my play is that I'll let pots get too big too fast. Here's where I struggle. At what point do I slow down? I dont' see smooth calling his flop bet as an option because I have no idea where I stand if I do. a 2/3 bet on the flop can easily mean:
1. a continuation bet with air
2. flush draw
3. straight draw
4. over pair
5. monster (set/made str8)

Do I smooth call his re-reraise? That certainly narrow's things down some. At that point I'm pot committed anyway I believe. If a spade or a K comes on the turn what do I do? If I check he'll bet with anything and I'll have to fold. I could bet to see where he is but at this point there's $160+ in the pot. What kind of feeler bet could I make to not apear weak yet not commit the rest of my chips?

The interesting thing is that later last night I flopped a bottom set against a pair and a flush draw that developed very similar and my read was right on. Unfortunately I lost that one but I'll dig it up after work and maybe post that as well. I think this is definately one area I could improve on.

__________________

Sacraficing a read on his hand by smooth calling can sometimes be worth it for the sake of pot control. Besides, who says you don't know where you stand by smooth calling? You may just get a read by how he reacts to your smooth call. (say you smooth call the flop $10) I would assume, with that much in the pot, he would fire hard on the turn to take it down if he wasn't so strong. An average size bet on the turn would most likely mean he has a made hand...whereas a very over agressive bet would mean he is weak and maybe only has a pair with a draw.

Mind you, flat calling the flop bet would leave $32 in the pot, his turn bet should be about the pot. If its a little less, he is pricing you, any more and he is probobly weak. But do you see the difference in pot control if you had smooth called? By raising things floated out of control into an all-in $400 pot. In rings you always want to control the size of the pot, especially in situations where you don't have a solid read and don't have such a strong hand.


Also keep in mind what you have observed from this player before. I say "bet should be about the size of the pot", but what i mean is, with no read you can assume the average player makes that kind of bet in that situation, so this is your starting point on a read. However this player may be different. When I say "an average size bet" and things of that nature, I can't really tell you how much an average size bet is. You have to observe what an average size bet for this particular player is and base your read reletive to that.

So in my opinion no, this may not have been a cooler hand for both of you. I believe it is possible it could have went differently. Think about if you DID smooth call the flop. You would have hit quads on the turn and wouldn't have made this post because you would most likely have the viewpoint that you won that pot with good play rather than sucking out since you suckered him in on the turn for all his chips.