when to call with a pair

When do you guys suggest that the pot odds are right to call with a middle/low pair and try to hit a set?

I know in the small blind the implied odds are great, but what about the button or second to the button?

I realize this depends on stack size and blind size, but I'm sure you can give me some advice.

Unless you are talking short-handed play (6 players or less), low to mid pocket pairs (22-99) are all about set value. Most flops will bring one, possibly 2 over cards, and there is also a good chance you will be up against a stronger pocket pair (if you have 22, there is a 35% chance or so someone will have a higher pocket pair than you). It's good to get in with these hands cheaply, unless you have position against tight opponents - at which point, it would be a good idea to raise preflop.

Postflop, I'd start out with set-or-fold strategy. You will only hit your set 1 in 10 times, but when you do hit it, you should get payed off nicely. Once you have a feel for your opponents, you can throw in semi-bluffs postflop when they show weakness. For example:

Blinds are 100/200. I have 3500 chips in the big blind, and you have 5000 chips on the button. We are heads up.

I decide to limp in (my cards are irrelevant here). You look down and see 66. You raise it up to 600 total. I call.

Flop comes K72. I check it to you. If you feel I would bet the King or 7, betting the flop is the correct play. While you don't even have mid-pair, it still most likely beats what I have. If I raise you, fine - you know you're beat - but you most likely would have lost a small bet anyway by the river, had you played the hand passively. In this scenario, you are at least giving me the opportunity to fold.

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Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

If you're just talking about pot odds, then 6.5 to 1 odds would give you the correct odds to call with your pair.

i.e you're around 13% to hit a set on the flop...about 6.5 to 1.

With the blinds and 5 callers, you'd be getting almost exactly the right odds to call and see a flop.

However, with implied odds - meaning that you will likely be paid off well if you do hit your set with your small/medium pair - means that you often would like to call with less favourable pot odds than 6.5 to 1.

The thing about smaller pairs is, in multiway pots, you are more likely to get action than you would if you hit a set with a bigger pocket pair.

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I work maths out roughly and mars will probably tell me I'm wrong

I'm not actually sure whether the odds of hitting a set on the flop are 12% or 13%. Somewhere around that.

let's say it's 12% ...so 100/12 = 8.33 .. meaning odds of around 7 to 1 would give you correct odds to call.

I work on the the principle that if I'm getting decent odds and my stack can stand a call, then I'll call to see a flop with my pair. Getting decent odds implies I have a position whereby I'm likely to see a flop.

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You're right - I will tell you you're wrong

Just looked up the stat, Moshman says its 11.8% to hit a set on the flop, 19% by the river. Just for fun, though - let's work it out for ourselves:

Let's say you have 22:

There are 50C3 flops that will come out when you hold a pair such as 22 - that's 19600.

Of those 19600 flops, at least one two appears in 3/50* 50C3 * 2 - (50-2) = 2304.

2304/19600 =
144/1225 = 0.11755102040816326530612244897959.. which means you need to be getting (going by strictly pot odds) 7.5069444... to 1 or better to make a preflop call. Of course, (as has already been said), low pocket pairs are all about implied value - so assuming both you and your opponents have good-sized chip stacks, you can make most preflop calls, if they are relatively cheap.

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Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

Small pairs are really only worth a limp in late position. Middle pairs are ok middle and late position and depending on circumstnces and actual value might be worth a raise.

But always remember, late position preflop is totally out of position post flop.

Well ok I was a little out in my first post with 13%. 12% is nearer - and
my 7.3 to 1 calculation will do me! Sod Mosham, Mars and all those clever clogs

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So a middle pair is OK to call with in middle position (I'm assuming you'd also call a small late position raise) and a small pair is OK to call with late postion? Sounds great if that's true.

I've got a couple of questions, though:

I thought you should always raise and only raise with value hands outside of the blind.

Also, the players I play are grossly loose, and I'm wondering if I should adjust your strategy to compensate. I find myslef losing almost every time with upper-middle strength hands with all of the callers and also losing with middle strength hands, and I find that strong cards do well. Even on the button, because people play grossly loose (free live tournaments and micro level paid cash games).

I'm also wondering if I would be more successful against good players.

Thanks guys.

To your first question, "I thought you should always raise and only raise with value hands outside of the blind". That is not necasarily true. Although many pros live by the philosophy, "Pump it or dump it", in my opinion there is absolutly nothing wrong with limping into a pot. You could try limping in late position with a marginal hand cause you well get paid of if you hit and you will have position on other players in the pot. You can limp into pots with medium to small pairs. Also, you can limp into pots with AA and KK from early position, looking for someone behind you to raise with a weaker hand. There is nothing wrong with limping and often it is very profitable if you hit your hand, (implied odds). Of course, this is one of many strategies and it is often opposed by many players who hardly ever limp into pots.

"The players I play are grossly loose, and I'm wondering if I should adjust my strategy to compensate". Yes. First of all dont bluff at these players. They will call with almost anything. Also, try and get into situations where you can trap them, (say for example you flop top pair and you're in a pot against two grossly over aggrressive players. You should check it to them because they will probably bluff at it). Play straightfoward poker against them and try not to bluff.

"I'm also wondering if I would be more successful against good players"
The last question cracks me up. We all wander that, (especially me, crapshoot and Cat5Cane who only seem to play against idiots.) You would in fact probably do better against good players if you yourself are a good player. (unfortunatly there are very few of them at micro stakes)

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