I Hate Hands Like This.

I was playing a NL ring game last night and was doing fairly well. I was up about $50. I was going to play one more hand and call it a night. I get dealt . I figure Ill see a flop, and if I dont hit Ill fold and call it a night. Someone raised from $1 to $3 and gets me and one other caller. Again, I only called cause this was gonna be my last hand for the night and figured Id see a flop.

Flop:

Im first to act and check. Second guy bets about $10. Next guy moves all in for around $40. Now I know Im in trouble, I can never lay these kinds of hands down. I have a lot of outs, and each one gives me the nuts. I actually put both of these guys on AK. But I have 12 outs, which puts me at about 48%. So about a coin flip, with a chance to more than double up. Plus, Im sure the other guy is willing to put more money in. So the odds tell me to call right?

So I call and the guy after moves all in for a total of about $80. I have to call.

The turn

Now I know Im probably down to one out.

The river


They both show AK.


Why couldnt that have been the diamond Jack. So instead of being up $50 I end up down $40. A $90 swing...........grrrrrrr. Would you guys have called on the flop?

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theprofessor@texasholdemforums.com

You only had $3 invested in the pot, it was $40 to call (with or without another player behind you)... have to lay that hand down.

Yeah, you can't make that call. It is just way to much. If you figure your opponents have two pair, then there is that possibility that he can make a full house, like he did. You're only on a draw, just muck it on the flop. Now, if you had AdKd and the flop came JdTd, that would be a different story since you had two over cards, but not when you don't even have one over card.

I know you said it was your last hand of the night, but when I'm in a situation like that and I know it will be my last hand, I play ultra-tight, not even looser, so that I can conserve the money I've won. Alright, you limp with QTs, that is fine, but you shouldn't have even called that $3 raise. Unlike some tournaments, 3xBB raises should be respected. Those are fairly large preflop raises, and you should put your opponent on a good hand with that raise.

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actually, with 12 cards to better your hand, and they only have 4, you really do have to make that call. Especially if you are figuring the next guy will call too. In the end you were getting 3-1 on your bet and you were 2-1 to win the hand. You lost this time, but play like that over time and you will come out ahead. In a tourney, I would lay it down. In a cash game, I think you have to call. Bummer they didnt wait until the flop to move all in lol then you could get away cheap.


Having said the way you should play it, I dont know if I could play it like that. But you did right. Dont be upset.


Merry Christmas

I completely disagree with that blang, just like the WSOP story you have almost nothing involved in the pot only this time you KNOW you are currently beat and on a draw. They have you beat, you need one of 12 cards to beat them and also if they hit one of their remaining 4 cards then you are dead to the Jd.

You know you are beat and have to draw out to win and even if you do it would still be dead if they hit. You currently have $3 in the pot, walk away.

you and I are just very different Fink. Like I said, I dont know if I WOULD call, but the by the book, playing the odds play, is to make the call here. In fact, it's a no brainer with the odds. You are getting over 3-1 when you are 2-1 to win. Not even close.

In a tourney, different story. Lots of other things to take into consideration. Ring game, the play to make is to get your chips in. If I read it right, the original bet was $40 to win what would be a $140 pot. (estimating, add in the other $160 and you are betting $80 to win almost $300 when you are almost 2-1 to win. which mean that if you played this hand 10 times you would win $1500 and lose $400 (going by the odds). That is plus $1100.

Again, I dont know if I WOULD, but the book and odds say you made the right play.

Cash games are ALL about playing your odds right if you want to make money over a period of time. Yes, this time you would be up $90 if you fold, but remember, proper poker play isn't always outcome based, especially in a one hand situation. If you're serious about making money over a period of time, these are the calls you have to make.

If you fold these odds all the time, you are losing more money than you realize.

I'll agree to disagree with Fink in the tourney calls, as that is more a short term proposition. But you have to play ring games looking at long term profit. So, I'll stick to my guns here. You cant just play what you see, you have to play what is to come.

i'm off to the fam's for Christmas. be back Tuesday. Have a Merry Christmas everyone.

How much you've personally invested in the pot is irrelevant. All that matters is how much is currently in the pot, how much you have to call, compared to how often you will win. It doesn't matter where the money in the pot came from. The situation the professor posted is pretty close and in my opinion is probably a fold, but the fact that you only have $3 invested shouldn't factor into your decision making. If you own Super System 2 look over Mike Caro's chapter, he wrote something on this.

And to blang, all the numbers you posted are only applicable if you're 100% sure the guy behind you is coming along for the ride. If you know you're going to get 3 way action on your flush/straight draw, then yes it's a good call. Most of the time however the guy behind you will fold, which makes this a much more questionable call. I agree with all the other stuff you said about cash games in general though.

Im not sure why you guys think that was a bad call. I am about 50/50 to win. And Im getting better than 2 to 1 on my money, almost 3 to 1. The odds say you have to call that. Im risking $80 total on a coin flip that would win me over $200 dollars. Ill take those odds any time.

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theprofessor@texasholdemforums.com

blang and prof....

Odds on winning over the long run and all yeah I can see that. But you also have to realize that you don't KNOW they are holding AK... they could very well have AA KK or 22 which cause your "long term odds" to go completely down the drain. In this case you only have 11 cards on the turn and 10 on the river to make your hand and beat him where he has 7 cards on the turn and 10 of his own on the river which would render your hand dead to the J of diamonds. He has almost as much chance of catching as you do and he has you beat in the 1st place... you HAVE to catch, he doesn't.

I understand in the example he did in fact end up having AK but you have no way of knowing this when the decision needs to be made so I ask again, how do you make this call?