Well, even if your odds are 35% that means that calling a 3-1 bet is still going to be profitable. So, the question you need to ask yourself here is "Am I going to get the odds?" And if youput BOTH guys on trips or even AK, then yeah, you are going to get the action you need (And you DO Need both of them to make this profitable. Heads up, the proper move is to fold).
Asking yourself what you have invested in the pot is the WRONG question in a cash game. You are IN the pot. The only way you win pots is to GET MONEY IN. The question needs to be, "Am I getting enough money out of this pot when I win to make it profitable?"
OK, 36% to win the pot. Over 50 hands you can expect to win 18 times (and this is WORST case scenario at this point. Chances are you are more than 36%)
lets say you have to call 80$ to win a $250 pot
18x250 = $4500
32x (-)80 = (-)$2560
that is an ev of almost + 2000
So, lets say you are calling an $80 into a $200 pot
18 x 200 = 3600
32 x (-)80 = (-)2560
Still a +ev of almost $1000
So really you dont even need the 3/1 odds here. Calling with a little less than that will still be profitable. So, if your bankroll can afford a call here it is the proper play. If you fold this situation, over 50 hands you will GUARANTEED to be -$150. If your bankroll cannot afford to call a move this profitable, then you should move down in limits.
Just for fun, lets do the numbers of calling $80 to win $200 in the situation you WERE in. 46% to win. Over 50 hands you can expect to win 23 times.
23 X 200 = 4600
27 x (-)80 = (-)1950
That is +almost $2700 ev.
Calling is the right play.
Last edited by blang13; 12-27-2005 at 05:07 PM.
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