CalifNaughti, the bad beat you described... is a classic underpair outflopping an overpair. Think about it a little further, you hold AA allin preflop as a 81% favorite vs your opponent's 77 holding the 19% butt-end of this matchup. Let's assume you are both holding the same suited cards so you have flush possible over the pocket 77 but HERE'S the TRUTH: your opponent wins with any two-outer 7 or if a straight comes somehow using his 7. It just felt worse to you because he flopped the damn quads. That is why he has 19% statistical probability going to the flop = in other words your AA is going to get beat 1 out of 5 times in this spot in the long run. You weigh the odds for an allin situation like this holding AA heads-up I would 100% get your chips in with the best of it, you can feel good about that play.
Now if I may share with you a similiar pair vs pair real bad beat from a live $6/12 full-table holdem at a California card room that happened to me two years ago, but the point of the story is that you should always consider your odds after seeing the flop. I was holding JJ late position over a player I considered to be loose who was holding 44. Seeing the flop come J47 rainbow, I was delighted to hit my top set and raised the bet to the multiway pot. When the action came around to my whoopin' boy holding the underset 44 he reraised of course which narrowed the field to only one other caller, and of course I capped the betting on that flop. BUT IT WAS AT THAT POINT that timing of the universe was against me at that moment because the dealer made a mistake which cost me the pot by burning and turning too quickly, the dealer turned over the Ace of clubs on fourth street PRIOR to the player calling my capped flop bet. That Ace of Clubs was a fine turn card for me unless my opponent was holding AA because I was still holding the set of Jacks. As you may know, the typical house rule in case the turn or river card is revealed too soon (before all action has been completed) is that the card is taken away from the board, the deck is reshuffled in the middle of the hand, and then once the player finally calls the flop betting, the turn card is re-dealt. I was familiar with this procedure and had seen it happen before. When the dealer re-dealt the turn, what card do you think showed up? Do I even have to say it? Yes it was the last 4 in the deck giving my wild opponent quads with his pocket 44 and giving me top full-house with the board reading J474. The betting was uncapped as we faced-off on the turn and river brought a harmless 2 of Diamonds, I rerererererere(yes that many reraises) my chips in this $6/12 game before I finally just called when I had about $50 left in front of me I realized that no matter how loose this guy was, I couldn't help the fact he lad that ridiculous beat on me with seemingly divine intervention. I was really upset with the dealer at the time although I bit my tongue and did not lash out because I do believe it was very much a mistake on the dealer's part. If he had been paying better attention to running the game, he would not have made the error but that it another point. BUT YOU MAY ASK HOW DO YOU EVER FORGET a beat like that? I won't forget it ever because it taught me a couple things to remember...and do I even need to tell you at this point a year later I was playing in a different cardroom in a different state where this time I WON A HUGE POT because the dealer mistakenly burned and turned the river card before all action was complete? Yes, the next time it resulted in my favor and so will your AA the next 4 out of 5 times you get them in that spot, CalifNaughti!!! --gl, looseall |