Getting soo sick of these small buy ins...

Some days i'l play 2 or 3 of these and i nearly always get deep with a nice stack and then something like this happens...




*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #17481900846: Tournament #88190956, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/05/16 - 22:22:46 (ET)
Table '88190956 114' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Anny77 (2735 in chips)
Seat 2: TWO44 (1730 in chips)
Seat 3: BKYN70S (1464 in chips)
Seat 4: NEWBAUM (4575 in chips)
Seat 5: junior866 (2652 in chips)
Seat 6: kordel19 (12305 in chips)
Seat 7: nz_rawkus (6205 in chips)
Seat 8: JayC170 (7235 in chips)
Seat 9: moferd (3393 in chips)
JayC170: posts small blind 100
moferd: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JayC170 [Ac As]
Anny77: calls 200
TWO44: folds
BKYN70S: raises 200 to 400
NEWBAUM: folds
junior866: folds
kordel19: calls 400
nz_rawkus: folds
JayC170: raises 1600 to 2000
moferd: folds
Anny77: folds
BKYN70S: folds
kordel19: calls 1600
*** FLOP *** [Jc 8d 9s]
JayC170: bets 5235 and is all-in
kordel19: calls 5235
*** TURN *** [Jc 8d 9s] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [Jc 8d 9s Kd] [Ks]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JayC170: shows [Ac As] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
kordel19: shows [7c Th] (a straight, Seven to Jack)
kordel19 collected 15270 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 15270 | Rake 0
Board [Jc 8d 9s Kd Ks]
Seat 1: Anny77 folded before Flop
Seat 2: TWO44 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: BKYN70S folded before Flop
Seat 4: NEWBAUM folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: junior866 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: kordel19 showed [7c Th] and won (15270) with a straight, Seven to Jack
Seat 7: nz_rawkus (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: JayC170 (small blind) showed [Ac As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 9: moferd (big blind) folded before Flop


and before someone criticises my flop play...lets look at his likely range considering he called my huge raise: KQ, A10, AJ, AQ, and even those hands are calls 90% of the players on this forum would not make to my raise...though i factored in previous reads and teh fact its a small buyin.

with 1010-AK hes not just calling the limp min raise...hes pushing or re-raising....so these are very unlikely IMO..

which means by pushing im knocking him off straight draws or getting a call from top pair (AJ)...well thats the theory anyway...

any comments would be much appreciated.

~Jay~

I definately understand where your coming from with this play JayC givin your reasoning and the level of play theres just nothing you can do I mean you cant really put him on that sort of hand at all so I dont think it was a bad play at all just ran into a hand that would have been very tough for anyone to lay down.

Thanks for that captious, It's been happening alot recently and im starting to doubt my plays. I just think that even if i dont push the flop im going bust, as i have to continuation bet to not let him take free cards, and by the time i've put in a sizeable continuation bet i have like 2,000 behind in a pot of 6K + so i would have to call his push anyway considering the range he could be pushing with. Maybe im thinking too results orientated...

I glanced at the hand and I couldn't criticise your play. I misread the hand and at first I thought it said villain was playing 7c7h. Then I realised he was playing 7cTh. Still can't criticise your play of course. Cruel hand.

__________________
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What do we think of villains play? What kind of player was he JayC?

It's not very likely you are making some sort of bluff/steal acting after a call-raise-call, so surely he must put you on a range like JJ-AA, AK? On any of those hands he's going into the flop at least a 4 to 1 underdog.
I suppose he's getting odds to call is if you're playing medium to low pockets but
it possibly looks like he's got carried away with his big stack. He's praying to hit a lucky flop/or make a steal on the flop. Either way, it seems a very speculative play versus the second biggest stack at the table.

Of course we never can tell if our opponents are thinking much about the hand at all. But just wondered what you thought of his play.

__________________
May/June '07
....Team: 7 Black Balls - Ballandchain, Blackinks & 7letters
.... Sunday League Team Champions

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7 Balls - Ballandchain & 7letters
....Sunday League Team Champions
....Sunday League Individual Runner Up - 7letters

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday League Individual Runner Up - 7letters

March/April '08
....F'in rubbish - 7letters

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner - 7letters

Hi 7, thanks for your comments.

I had only just been moved onto the table. He played one hand out of the 3-4 i was there and that was KQ from middle position. He won a relatively small pot and played it very ABC. I rated him as an average player.

Im not sure if he was calling to outplay me or hit a lucky flop, but i'm more going towards lucky flop. I showed incredible strength preflop and the pot was about the size of my stack...its unlikely he could bluff me off my likely range here (JJ-AA..or AK).

Personally i hated his play. Results wise it worked for him but with how much i had committed (and how much he had to pay to see the flop) he was getting knowhere near the implied odds if he hit his hand to make the call profitable in the long run.

Another good point you make is im the second largest stack. Why is he tangling with me? about the only guy at the table who could do serious damage to his stack...and i've showed alot of strength....

Let's assume villain's plan was to get lucky on the flop, and he won't go any further in the hand without at least two pair - any other type of flop, he folds. Going by this, he actually is getting the right implied odds. Let's assume he makes the assumption that, if you hold JJ-AA, you are pushing any flop. This means his call of 1600 gets him 8435 chips to potentially win, giving him 5.27:1 odds - he needs to hit a strong flop 18.9% of the time. This is actually just about how often T7 would win against an overpair.

Now, while he won't actually hit a strong enough flop 18.9% of the time (it's probably about half that, 9.5%), there is also a decent chance of you holding AK or a low pocket pair - and that he could, in fact, outplay you on the flop. I believe this makes up for the implied odds he isn't getting from hitting two pair or better.

The fact that you are the only one who can hurt him is all the more reason for him to get into a hand like this with you. Against one of the shorter stacks, he has virtually no implied odds, it makes even less sense to make a call like this. However, against you and your healthy stack, this is a play one could legitimately make.

__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

Hmm not sure.
I understand your comments Mars and I made my post to see what members thought.
I'm ok with calling the flop with a speculative hand, getting 2 to 1 or whatever - when you have the conditions to do that but how many times can you make plays like this one in a tournament?
It surely looks like JayC is playing JJ-AA,AK here, so the favourable odds attached to any lower pockets can't figure too highly in the decision to call the preflop raise. Decent chance of low pockets or AK? How decent though?

I could make a similar call at a ring game with 2 to 1 odds and one opponent but I still don't like his play much here.

I dunno but I'll try to work through it,
Let's say, here, the chances of JayC making a play with..
other hands is 20% of the time (times say 60% win rate)=12%
AA-TT 60% (times say 15% win rate)=10%
lower pockets/AK 20% (times 40% win rate)=8%

is that reasonable?

So my estimated win rate would be about 30% (12+10+8)

OK so your possibly getting odds to call with those figures. Implied odds
like you say are a factor considering JayC's stack but why take someone on here who can damage you?
I still
think it's a risky play to make in a tournament against an unknown sizeable stacked opponent. OK villain did have a very good stack to play with - but is this the sort of play you'd like to make often too in a tournament?

I know someone might say that were discussing poker theory at a $5 buyin where theory goes out the window at times - but it's a poker forum and I like discussions sometimes. Especially when luckbox Mars is
involved.

__________________
May/June '07
....Team: 7 Black Balls - Ballandchain, Blackinks & 7letters
.... Sunday League Team Champions

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7 Balls - Ballandchain & 7letters
....Sunday League Team Champions
....Sunday League Individual Runner Up - 7letters

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday League Individual Runner Up - 7letters

March/April '08
....F'in rubbish - 7letters

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner - 7letters

You could try shopping around for a better site. Small buy ins are always going to have dodgy players, but I find some of the smaller sites are preferable as the density of idiots can be lower. Even then, some days they seem to crawl out of the wood work, other days though, you'd swear blind it was a 10K buy in the play is so tight.