Getting soo sick of these small buy ins...

Yeah you do see very tight games at low buyins sometimes don't you.

I think sometimes, as in life, people are influenced by the group ethic eg a low buyin begins with tight play,standard raises etc and then even the over-loose donks feel their reins tighten - they begin to fall in line for fear of looking silly.

Usually, when a party has been going a while and people have drunk a few,
their intoxicated personalities sometimes begin to show through.

I'm not sure what that post meant

__________________
.



May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

I think that's a fair analysis too.

..if he hits 2 pair he may come up against a set.

__________________
.



May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

I believe 5+:1 implied odds are good enough to make a call with any given hand, if you are able to afford it.

As for villain not knowing what implied odds, etc., are - I was giving him the benefit of the doubt so that some discussion can be made. No discussion comes from "Look at this bad beat, it's absolutely terrible!" Everyone suffers those types of beats, so no discussion comes from it. However, if you give your opponents the benefit of the doubt of intelligence, you can discuss some poker theory and (gasp!) possibly become a better player because of it. Had you seen a play like this on high stakes poker, with someone such as Daniel Negreanu or Gus Hanson making a play like this, you would say they played the hand beautifully - and if they missed and mucked, no one would say anything.

The play villain made can only be made by a big stack - but when they do it, you can get some really awesome results. If villain loses the hand, he still has about 25 blinds - more than enough to play with. If he wins this hand, however...he has complete domination of the table going on, and could very well go on to win the tournament.

__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

When the betting returns to KORDEL ugh the pot has reached 3,100 chips and it will cost kordel 1,600 to continue. How is this 5 to 1 odds, it is not, it's 2 to 1 odds. Now having said that, with the initial raise then the huge reraise by Jc letting everyone know he's not fking around here and more than likely is holding AA,KK,or QQ how in the hell do you call this the right implied odds with a ten7. From your statements you are suggesting this nasty fish must hit the flop big, 2pair or a straight to continue. You go get me the odds of AA vs. ten7 off only having seen the flop. And finally this fish is sitting there with over 12k in chips versus Jc's 7k so and can only win 5k more if fish get s lucky flop. Now do you understand that this is no where near the right implied odds?

A good post for debate Mars but im strongly with Gimme here. Firstly he is only seeing 3 cards, not the whole board, which lowers his chance of outdrawing my likely range. Secondly, I'm not deep enough and he had to call too much (1,600 preflop) to have the correct implied odds here (and thats still with the assumption i push any board on the flop - he doesn't know that). I'm 99% certain this guy is a donkey who got lucky (not a skilled player who took a chance). He probably doesn't even know what implied odds are.

Great discussion anyway

His IMPLIED odds are 5.27:1. For those beginners (and pros) who need a re-fresher on what implied odds are, they are what you would expect to win, should you make your hand. They are based off of reads, and are by no means an exact science.

EXAMPLE: Board reads AJ94, 2 hearts. There are 200 chips in the pot. I have 67s in my hand for the heart draw. My opponent bets the pot. I figure him for AK (no heart draw). Now, right now I am getting 2:1 pot odds - however, depending on how loose my opponent is (and how likely he is to put me on a flush draw), my implied odds could be much greater. Let's say my opponent has 1400 chips left after his bet (I have him covered), and I believe he would still be willing to call (or bet) an additional 900 on the river if a heart comes. In this case, my implied odds would not be 2:1, but rather (400+900):200 or 6.5:1 (as I would only put in the 900 bet/call if I hit the draw, I don't consider this in my odds calculations). This would actually be enough odds to justify a call on the turn.

In JayC's hand above, the exact same thing is going on. Right now, villain is getting only 2:1 or so pot odds. However, villain also knows if he hits, he will gain an additional 5235. His pot odds are 3200:1600 (or 2:1), however his implied odds are (3200+5235=8435):1600, or 5.271875:1.

I understand we are realistically only seeing the flop - and I would say villain would out-flop JayC about 9 or 10% of the time, which is not enough to justify a call, even with the immense implied odds he is getting. With that said, there is still a chance that JayC is overplaying a low-mid pocket pair (i.e., villain has at least 3 and possibly even 6 immediate outs), as well as the possibility that JayC has AK (again, 6 outs).

Let's say 80% of the time, JayC has an overpair (JJ-AA), and the other 20% of the time, he is holding AK or an underpair (22-66).

80% of the time, villain flops 2 pair or better 10% of the time (estimation here, don't know the exact odds) = .08
20% of the time, JayC misses his flop 68% of the time (and villain can push JayC) = .136

Combined win percentage = 21.6%

Now let's look at the odds villain requires:

.08 win percentage requires 11.5:1 odds.
.136 win rate requires 6.35:1 odds.

80% of the time, villain is getting 5.27:1 = 4.26:1
20% of the time, villain is getting 2:1 = .4:1

Add them, you get 4.46:1 odds, meaning villain would have to win this hand approximately 18.3% of the time in order to come ahead. IN fact, villain will take down this hand on average, 21.6% of the time - so villain does in fact win more chips than he loses with this play.

JayC, I am not trying to say that villain is using any of this logic that I am proposing, I am 99.44% sure it was simply some lucky donk. With that said, I like to look at every angle, and determine some theory behind the game that I can try out. Is villain here a poker genious by any means for using this play? I highly doubt it. With that said, through the looking-into of this play, you can make a donkey play a VERY advanced tool to use against opponents, which will give you just one more edge.

__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

His IMPLIED odds are 5.27:1. For those beginners (and pros) who need a re-fresher on what implied odds are, they are what you would expect to win, should you make your hand. They are based off of reads, and are by no means an exact science.

EXAMPLE: Board reads AJ94, 2 hearts. There are 200 chips in the pot. I have 67s in my hand for the heart draw. My opponent bets the pot. I figure him for AK (no heart draw). Now, right now I am getting 2:1 pot odds - however, depending on how loose my opponent is (and how likely he is to put me on a flush draw), my implied odds could be much greater. Let's say my opponent has 1400 chips left after his bet (I have him covered), and I believe he would still be willing to call (or bet) an additional 900 on the river if a heart comes. In this case, my implied odds would not be 2:1, but rather (400+900):200 or 6.5:1 (as I would only put in the 900 bet/call if I hit the draw, I don't consider this in my odds calculations). This would actually be enough odds to justify a call on the turn.

In JayC's hand above, the exact same thing is going on. Right now, villain is getting only 2:1 or so pot odds. However, villain also knows if he hits, he will gain an additional 5235. His pot odds are 3200:1600 (or 2:1), however his implied odds are (3200+5235=8435):1600, or 5.271875:1.
I understand we are realistically only seeing the flop - and I would say villain would out-flop JayC about 9 or 10% of the time, which is not enough to justify a call, even with the immense implied odds he is getting. With that said, there is still a chance that JayC is overplaying a low-mid pocket pair (i.e., villain has at least 3 and possibly even 6 immediate outs), as well as the possibility that JayC has AK (again, 6 outs).

Let's say 80% of the time, JayC has an overpair (JJ-AA), and the other 20% of the time, he is holding AK or an underpair (22-66).

80% of the time, villain flops 2 pair or better 10% of the time (estimation here, don't know the exact odds) = .08
20% of the time, JayC misses his flop 68% of the time (and villain can push JayC) = .136

Combined win percentage = 21.6%

Now let's look at the odds villain requires:

.08 win percentage requires 11.5:1 odds.
.136 win rate requires 6.35:1 odds.

80% of the time, villain is getting 5.27:1 = 4.26:1
20% of the time, villain is getting 2:1 = .4:1

Add them, you get 4.46:1 odds, meaning villain would have to win this hand approximately 18.3% of the time in order to come ahead. IN fact, villain will take down this hand on average, 21.6% of the time - so villain does in fact win more chips than he loses with this play.

JayC, I am not trying to say that villain is using any of this logic that I am proposing, I am 99.44% sure it was simply some lucky donk. With that said, I like to look at every angle, and determine some theory behind the game that I can try out. Is villain here a poker genious by any means for using this play? I highly doubt it. _____Mars

HOLY HELL!!!


With that said, through the looking-into of this play, you can make a donkey play a VERY advanced tool to use against opponents, which will give you just one more edge.____Mars

Never ever ever try to take anything from a fish or donkey and incorporate into your own game.

Great post Mars, one thing i will add though is that Implied odds are never certain. They can only be estimated based on reads (and your posts have been based around the fact his implied odds are my entire stack if he hits his hand - which is not neccisairly true). Considering the strength I showed preflop, admittedly his Implied odds look good (it is LIKELY he will take my stack if he hits big based on my 80% range of JJ-AA), but say i am playing AK or an underpair (Which you estimated i would be holding 20% of the time) and the board is 10 7 4.

I can easily get away from my hand and still have 5 K behind. Yes i would probably continuation bet in that spot and lose maybe an extra 2 K...but this is not certain by any means....many weaker plays in the $5 buyin would check fold....meaning Villain got very little for the amount he invested preflop.

Say I am holding JJ and the flop is K/A 10 7. Again i can get away from my hand. Situations like the above reduce the value of his implied odds.

impressive post indeed Mars. Fact is you are off in some of your calculations, but you can go in all sorts of different ways when thinking like this. Nonetheless very interesting analysis Mars.