Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion I usually 3bet with KQs in this spot unless i'm up against a super nit. Re-evaluate if facing a 4bet. You have to know how often the minraise happens and whether it means strength/weakness/nothing at all. Flat calling is pretty bad here 3handed unless you have a strong reason to think you're up against a monster. |
There is 4900 in the pot, giving DJ just over 4:1 to call. If he is up against KK (worst case scenario), he is only 13% to win - meaning he would need 6.535:1 odds in order to break even. Even if he hits the miracle flop, he isn't going to get much more out of Euca, as it will either be a) 3 to a suit, b) hold 2 queens, or c) contain the TJA straight draw, IN ADDITION to the over card out there.
Now let's take the best case scenario - Euca holds QQ - and DJ is 34.76% to win. In this case, he needs 1.88:1 in order to break even. While he is clearly getting better than that, this is only true if all betting were to stop right there. Betting will
not stop there, Euca will bet any favorable flop for her, and anything unfavorable (AKx board, 3 to a suit, etc), she will slow down, and DJ gets nothing out of the pot.
Case in point: If you put Euca on a monster, flat calling is the
worst decision you can make.