On the bubble -What's the correct move?

Views on this aprecaited.
Before skipping to the hand history, I'd like to explain the circumstances to you.

I'd been very card dead the whole game, never really got my head above water. Blinds were catching me up all the way and for the last hour I'd basically been picking opportunities to push allin in any favourable positions.
Picked up blinds to survive many times. With this blind structure stacks were
fairly close.
I think I was 20th with around 21 players left but even then the chip leader probably had only around 6 times my stack.
I think I was only called twice when I got my chips in and managed to double on those occasions.


Anyway, here we are down to 11 players and 10 players reach the final table and a payout.
I was 10th in chips with one player at table 2 slightly lower than me.

So, I get this hand, where on the one hand I can possibly fold
and HOPE that the low stack on the other table(who I think was on about 2500 chips and was due to pay the BB before I did) loses when he moves allin, which he must do very soon.
In that case I make the payouts and take my first opportunity to get my chips in at the final table.

Not such a big game, around $100 for 1st place and $9 for 10th.
A $5 buyin- $50 added game - around 60 entrants.

-If I hang on and finish 10th I've made just $3.50 profit.
-This hand below looks a perfectly good opportunity to go allin,
possibly make the final table and give me a chance of a better payout.
- On previous plays I don't expect either player to my left to call without a pretty decent hand.
So what do you do?
Fold and wait it out, or go for the opportunity to double up and make a better profit?

In mind my I think, I made the right choice but at least a couple of people didn't agree with my decision.

..would your decision differ if the buyin and payouts were larger?



Seat 1: BigChick (14394.00 in chips)
Seat 2: 7letters (6679.00 in chips)
Seat 5: gman6505 (19604.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Goober49 (30729.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Ivpiter (55229.00 in chips)
Seat 9: dorrthy47 (15604.00 in chips)
BigChick posts ante of $200
7letters posts ante of $200
gman6505 posts ante of $200
Goober49 posts ante of $200
Ivpiter posts ante of $200
dorrthy47 posts ante of $200
gman6505: posts small blind $1,000
Goober49: posts big blind $2,000
Dealt to 7letters [ ]
Ivpiter: folds
dorrthy47: folds
BigChick: folds
7letters: is all in 6479.0000
gman6505: folds
Goober49: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ]
*** RIVER *** [ ]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Goober49 wins $15,158 with Full House, Aces full of Queens

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May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

Skipped past most of that. Here is what mattered:
-One player will have to go all in twice before you will.
-Your chip count is low, so you should be looking for a chance to go all in
-I want to make the most money possible for my situation.
-Your situation dictates you can make the final table, and possibly a little better based on people playing loose as soon as the bubble busts, but you must outlast the other player for this to happen.
-Folding will leave you with about 12 hands left before you are forced all in, if your hand is better then the top 1/12th of all poker starting hands (roughly, your top 20 starting hands), you are more likely to win now then waiting.

So are you going to (statistically, on average) get a better situation then a K8o in the next 10 hands or so? I believe the answer is yes. You do not have to win a hand to make the money, which is no small part of analyzing the whole situation. I would not be eager to just throw my chips in and see what happens. If I get a couple of Broadway cards or a pair, thats when I start thinking about if it's worth it to move in.

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See this space for details:

Maybe I counted wrong, but I think I'd be allin with 1679 chips on the 10th hand after this if I didn't enter a pot.

I do see your reasoning but I'm not convinced

I may indeed get a better hand than K8 if I wait but I'd prefer to open a pot when I get the opportunity and it's not guaranteed that'll I get that situation.
If I do wait and then double, considering that other low stacks may make chips also, I'll still be in a situation where I need to double again anyway - I'm back where I started.

Just prior to this hand myself and the other low stack were pretty even.
I made a steal and took the blinds and they paid their big blind and folded to a raise. I got ahead in chips and could indeed fold my way to a small profit of $3.50.
If I play the hand above and move allin then..
1. I win when called and I'll have 12,958 chips and can aim for a higher payout.
2. Don't get a call, I'll have 10,679 chips. I can aim for a higher payout.
3. I may get a call and lose.

My feelings were that neither of my 2 opponents in the hand will risk chips right there unless they have strong hand.

I lost and bubbled but I can't yet convince myself that it was a bad play.

__________________
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May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

I see your point totaly, 7, but I would choose a better hand than K 8. 10th money is not much of a factor, since it is so small, but I would still wait for a better starting hand before pushing all in on the bubble.

No I think you made the right play in good position you just hit a wall thats all...

I wouldnt have made that play myself, but I can see your reasoning.

Personally I will wait for a better hand. I certainly like to be the 1st in the pot, but I will call allin if I am dealt a strong hand. Here though, if you get called its quite possible your dominated and its hard to imagine you are a favorite to any hand that will call you.

I would rather make that play with a smaller hand like 67s, in that situation your almost guaranteed to have 2 live cards, and straight and flush possibilities. K8o leaves you a chance to be dominated, a long shot at a flush or straight.

To me its not about simply making the money, is the $3.50 really worth the time you put into the tourney? Probably not but it might be. I want to give myself the best shot at winning or getting the most money I can, and I will get quite low before I force myself into a push with a hand I dont want to play.

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