Well, my thinking was that if he held the ace, he would have bet the flop. I was thinking it was quite possible he held a mid-decent pocket pair, I believe 9s or Ts was my current thinking. When the ten hit the turn and he bet, I took out the possibility of him holding TT because personally, I would let my opponent do the betting - with my preflop reraise he has to figure I hit the flop or turn. At this point I had him on either 99, KJ, or KT. I merely called because I knew there was the possibility that he had hit the set, or Ax. If he holds Ax, his kicker is most likely weak, and so I can rely on him checking the river. If he holds a set, I was looking for a monster bet on the river, and that's why I figured a raise on the turn would be a mistake. I wasn't counting on a value bet such as that on the river to cripple me, I figured if I lost the hand it was because I'd be folding the river, and so I'd be left with 645, not 435. In my opinion, that's a huge difference at 15/30 short handed.
__________________ 1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame. |