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odds question Beginners Table  | 
08-11-2007, 09:46 PM
| | | |  odds question
Hallo everybody,
I am new and completely unexperienced, I am now learning something about the odds and I wanted to ask a question to check if I understood correctly.
We have two kinds of odds: those regarding the cards, and those regarding the pot. The former are also called the outs, and they are the chances of getting a helpful card after the flop, when one has already got a solid idea what can or cannot be achieved; by helpful I mean that the card is practically sure to give us a winning hand, i.e. what we deem (whether wisely or not, and this is open to further question) to be the best possible hand. So if I have four suited cards at the flop, the odds are 1.9 to 1 to catch a flush on either of the remaining streets.
The pot odds, instead, are calculated on the spot, depending on what's already in the pot and regardless of how much of it was put by us. So if the pot is, say, 100$ at the flop, it doesn't matter if it was me big or small blind or if I called or checked: the decision has been made anyway and 100$ is what we got.
Now let's imagine that the pot gets raised by two players to 150$, 25$ each. I would then need 25$ to call it and proceed to the turn. Which means that at this point the pot odds are 150/25: 6 to 1.
In this case - I am chasing a flush, 1.9 to 1, and the pot odds are 6 to 1 - it is definitely advisable to call, right?
But what if the pot odds equal the card odds? | | |
08-11-2007, 10:14 PM
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Your analysis of odds are correct. If the pot odds equal the card odds, i.e., you are receiving 1.9:1 odds for your 1.9:1 draw, then some real thinking comes into play.
For one, if you DO hit your draw on the turn, you are almost guaranteed to make more money that that which has already been added to the pot. So, if there's already $100 in the pot, you can expect some more money to be added by your opponents on the turn and river.
However, if you DON'T hit your draw on the turn, you should generally expect to pay more to see it. Maybe you payed $30 to see the turn in a $60 pot...great. But now you've missed your draw, and you will only be hitting your draw 1 in 6 times or so, and you are now looking at a $75 bet. In almost all cases you need to fold at this point.
When pot odds are equal (or close to) the card odds, you need to figure in implied odds. This is essentially how much more you can get your opponents to add to the pot once you've hit your draw. So, let's say you're heads up, with $20 in the pot. Your opponent bets out $40, a clear overbet of the pot. If you only have a flush draw, you are not getting the proper pot odds to call. However, if you KNOW that you can get your opponent to commit $500 more if and when you hit your flush, it would be very profitable to call here. The reasoning is that while you are only getting 1.5:1 odds for your 1.9:1 draw (and it will become more expensive on the turn), you also realize if you hit your draw on the turn, the odds are more like 560:40, or 14:1, a case where you would clearly call.
__________________
1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League
Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame. | | |
08-11-2007, 11:26 PM
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damn you are good at that mars!
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08-11-2007, 11:38 PM
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kmars is spot on in terms of factoring implied odds into the equation. The other two elements that you need to consider are
a) what hands will win for you and on what percentage of the time
b) this is more advanced - if it is a ring game what percentage of your bank roll is exposed (also make sure you deduct the rake first) and if it is a tourney game can I make enough extra value out of doubling equal a small loss in theoretical value for calling with totally marginal odds.
In terms of a) - you need to know what you are putting your opponent on before you can calculate odds. If he is betting on 27os on a flop of 38K then pot odds do not apply and you need to factor in this sort of situation into calculating your odds. Odds are important but not nearly as important as reads on what your opponent has | | |
08-12-2007, 03:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k06mars  However, if you DON'T hit your draw on the turn, you should generally expect to pay more to see it. Maybe you payed $30 to see the turn in a $60 pot...great. But now you've missed your draw, and you will only be hitting your draw 1 in 6 times or so, and you are now looking at a $75 bet. In almost all cases you need to fold at this point. | OK. I'll focus on this for a sec. If I don't hit my draw on the turn, what I've bet so far does not count, and I take it from there: in the same hypothetical situation as before, the pot is now 175, 50 of which is mine. The turn didn't help, and I have two suited low cards - let's say 5 and 9. On the board there is an Ace or King, so almost every hand will beat me now. If I get to play first, of course I check. One of the two other players folds, the other raises (for argument's sake) an extra 35. So I put him on a high pair, the pot is 210 and I need 35 to call him. 210/35 = 6, which is (almost) the same as my card odds now. Again, pot odds equal card odds and it's only me and another player. What then? I guess the decision is now a matter of aggressivity, or confidence in one's luck, or more?
Thx! | | |
08-12-2007, 04:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nashledanou OK. I'll focus on this for a sec. If I don't hit my draw on the turn, what I've bet so far does not count, and I take it from there: in the same hypothetical situation as before, the pot is now 175, 50 of which is mine. The turn didn't help, and I have two suited low cards - let's say 5 and 9. On the board there is an Ace or King, so almost every hand will beat me now. If I get to play first, of course I check. One of the two other players folds, the other raises (for argument's sake) an extra 35. So I put him on a high pair, the pot is 210 and I need 35 to call him. 210/35 = 6, which is (almost) the same as my card odds now. Again, pot odds equal card odds and it's only me and another player. What then? I guess the decision is now a matter of aggressivity, or confidence in one's luck, or more?
Thx! | If Pot Odds = Card Odds when facing a bet on the turn, you should always call. That's because, worst case scenario, you break even in this case (over the long run). Worst case scenario, villain KNOWS you have a flush draw, and won't pay any if you hit it. Over time, you will break even in this scenario, as you are receiving 6:1 odds on a 6:1 draw.
In the best case scenario, however...this is where the flush draw would become profitable. Let's say your opponent has an overpair to the board (something like AA or KK), and isn't willing to give it up, even if you hit your flush. This means you could put in a pretty big bet on the river (assuming you hit), and still get payed off. So, while the pot odds say 210:35 in this situation, implied odds say you are getting something such as 700:35, or 20:1 odds. You should clearly call in this situation.
It's because of implied odds that you can call draws when you don't necessarily have the proper pot odds to call. Let's take a similar situation, only change the pot odds around a bit. You have a flush draw on the turn, and know the only way you will have the winning hand is if you hit the flush (we are assuming here that villains do NOT have higher flush draws). Pot odds are giving you something like 4.5:1 for your money. According to pot odds, you should fold this hand. However, if implied odds (and this is something that you have to calculate based on the skill level of your opponents) state that you can get 8:1 when you hit your hand, you should call. Here's an example with the numbers all out in the open:
Pot odds: 4.5:1, Implied odds: 8:1
225:50, Implied: 400:50
For every miss, you lose 50. For every hit, however, you win 400. With a 6:1 chance of hitting your hand, this means 5 times you will lose those 50 chips (meaning you lose 250 overall), but for the 1 time that you win 400, it makes up for it all, because you will still profit 150 chips on average.
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