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Go Back   Poker Forums > Texas Hold Em Rooms > Advice & Strategy

hand evaluation did I make the right call?

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Old 02-08-2010, 04:02 AM
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Default hand evaluation did I make the right call?

Hi there you all!,
I need some experienced players to evaluate this hand I lost today. ok I was playing on FullTilt in a 1800man freeroll tourney for a cash prize. I was doing well and had a large chip stack. Heres how the hand played out.
9 players at the table

I was in BB, 50.00 ,SB was 25.00

UTG player folds

player UTG+1 raises to 200.00 pre-flop with 1,500.00 in his stack

next 4 players fold

player on the button folds

at this point the action is 3 way pre-flop with 1 raise of 200.00 to play

SB calls the 200.00 and has 1,135.00 in his stack

action is to me with Ad,Kc, I raise to 350.00 to play with 5,250.00 in my stack

UTG+1 calls

total pot is now 900.00

action is to SB with 960.00 left in his stack and he calls

pot is now 1,050 pre-flop

the flop comes 5d,10d,7d,

(WITH A WEAK HAND AND ONLY A PAIR OF 10's HE SHOULD HAVE FOLDED RIGHT HERE BECAUSE OF MY PRE-FLOP AND POST FLOP RAISES /AGGRESSION Right?)he's hand chasing which is dumb right?)

I'm holding Ad,Kc so I'm 4 cards into the nut flush with 2 cards to come.
A/K off-suit is a group 2 hand according to the Sklansky/Malmuth starting hand group charts, which is a very strong starting hand and the EV for this hand in real play is 0.59-0.38. odds of getting dealt this hand 110:1
At this point I feel very confident that my hand will hold up.
It could be argued that I should have gone all in to drive the other two out and take down the pot but,but I didnt want to loose the tourney to a donkey call that got lucky.(which is exactly what was about to happen anyway)

the action moves to the SB with 810.00 left in his stack he goes all-in

I call

UTG+1 folds

play is now heads up for a pot of 2,670.00

we turn both hands up and now this is what I see

me Ad,Kc (group 2 hand)

him Q/10 suited /hearts(group 4 hand)

board reads 5d,10d,7d with 2 cards to come

me 4 cards to the nut flush+broadway straight draw+any Ace or King

so if I calculate correctly I have like ...

any diamond =9 cards

any Ace or King =6 cards

total outs = 15

so I should be 54.12% to win this hand by the river

ok the turn comes 5h

now the opponent has 2 pair 5's and 10's

my outs now drop to 9

I'm still 34.97% for the win

the river of sorrow comes 3h

DISASTER!!!!! ...for me anyway .....so the opponents says I'm a donkey and that I dont know my pot odds and that I was starting with nothing and betting on air......

....my response was..."no I had the better starting hand and I had you dominated, I made the right moves pre-and post flop...you made a bad call with a marginal hand and got lucky so in this case you are the dam donkey!"

so the question is.....

did I play the hand right? did I make the right moves?

how can I improve my game play the next time I run into this position?


Thanks for any insight!

DonkSLayer41
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Old 02-08-2010, 04:43 AM
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I'm sorry I don't have time to read through this. Next time post the hand history (preferably converted) and I'll give you my thoughts.
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Old 02-08-2010, 04:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkSlayer41 View Post
(WITH A WEAK HAND AND ONLY A PAIR OF 10's HE SHOULD HAVE FOLDED RIGHT HERE BECAUSE OF MY PRE-FLOP AND POST FLOP RAISES /AGGRESSION Right?)he's hand chasing which is dumb right?)

It could be argued that I should have gone all in to drive the other two out and take down the pot but,but I didnt want to loose the tourney to a donkey call that got lucky.(which is exactly what was about to happen anyway)

the action moves to the SB with 810.00 left in his stack he goes all-in

I call
Your hand analysis that I quoted in the 1st 2 paragraphs above is somewhat pointless... that "he should have folded" and that "it could be argued you should go all in to drive the other 2 players out" because your opponent was first to act and moved all in himself with top pair. After the flop you were behind in the hand and lost what was pretty much a coinflip at that point... not much else to say on the hand.
  
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Old 02-08-2010, 11:57 AM
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Yeah you seem to be over analysing this….

Anyway It’s an easy all-in pre-flop. You then pick up a decent amount of chips if they fold, or if not are all-in with probably the best hand. And it’s a good thing if they do fold as they are as likely to hit as you and there are hardly any extra chips to win off them anyway, as they are so short. Another problem with them being short is if they hit ANYTHING (never mind top pair) they probably won’t fold given their stack sizes.

Never min raise with AK. It’s an awful play at the best of times, and this is not the best of times.
  
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Old 02-08-2010, 02:49 PM
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Seems like your pot calculations are a little off and one of your outs is a Kd, so you can't count that twice.

I feel your major mistake is preflop. If you decided to make a re-raise preflop you should raise more.
When it's your turn to act, I think there's 450 in the pot.
You raise to 350.
I believe that the pot is now 800 and it's just 150 to call.
Not a difficult call to make for any hand is it - and we know that freerolls are notoriously loose.

Whilst it may be possible you have the best hand going in with AK, you are still likely to be an underdog to win the hand when seeing a flop 3 way.

You have a large stack - preflop you can call and see a flop or make a proper re-raise.

Ideally, you'd like to be against one opponent here.
If I've read the post correctly, I prefer the call preflop here simply because at this game it's think it's likely both opponents will play the hand out anyway.

Going to the flop as you did, yeah it's a coin flip, may as well call
considering stack sizes.

Any time you'd like to share a hand with members, you can get the hand history from the Full Tilt client and just copy-paste that here.
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Last edited by 7letters; 02-08-2010 at 03:05 PM.
  
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Old 02-09-2010, 09:37 PM
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As has been hinted already your raise preflop is a mistake. Basically it gave you a difficult decision needlessly preflop. Stackwise you are pretty much committing yourself to the pot in the sense that 150 raise is not enough to get many people to fold, all that you are doing is making play tough for you. You are giving them calling odds on a wide range of hands although a little more overcomitting their stack that I would usually want to go.

Flat calling AK is a little weak but against freeroll competition you are giving yourself a chance to win big when a or k hits and not over comitting yourself if it doesnt. All in is a good play here too as you are likely to have the best hand and you are not comitting too much of your stack for good pot odds.

Post flop you are really in a situation where you are going to have to call as a dog much of the time because you will get calling odds on many holdings.


In your analysis I get a hint of what I see as a particular weakness in aspiring players who are studying the strategy of the game in that they expect their opponents to act in the way they "should" - and if a hand goes wrong blaming it on that. The easiest way to build chips is to play solidly in a way that exploits their mistakes (eg being overcomitted with q10 for instance) rather than letting their mistakes exploit you.

You need to allow for the potential of opponents making mistakes. True on many holdings your raise will merely increase your winnings. Precisely because of your preflop agression, your post flop raise could not be read as too much strength - if I had called preflop I am all in on 10x every time in a freeroll there unless I have a strong counter read on the opponent to the opposite effect.
  
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