What are Odds?

WHAT ARE ODDS?

Odds are the likelihood of an outcome occurring in a given state of events, such as say a coin flip where there are only 2 possible outcomes, a choice of heads say would be at a 2 for 1 odds…even money, or 1 to 1 again even money, but in actuality it does not mean that a head will show up once in every two flips. In a way it is similar to the scientific half life example that I gave earlier, where in half lives it takes vast quantitative numbers of that being analyzed to be accurate…in odds it takes vast quantitative number of events to prove out. With that being said it is then possible to have tails turn up 20, 30 or more times in a row and both the head and the tail would still be at a 1 to 1 even money odds on the next flip of the coin…there is also no time line for this evening out factor, so your 2 to 1 flush draw at the flop could take a very long time before you actually hit a flush by the river and your opponent might hit it almost every time that he has the draw….this is where lucky/unlucky fits in. The timeline is actually infinity and it might be considered that someone is in the luck zone (short timeline) or the unlucky zone (extended timeline) as relative to their actual results over a short period of time. It is my contention then that one must adjust their play accordingly, such as they can take more risks by playing the odds if they are in the luck zone and stay away from the costlier risks even if the odds are favorable to them if they are in the unlucky zone.

What would be interesting is a study to see if the luck zones are based on the person or the actual events…such as do I have to be betting on the coin flip of heads or does the coin just have to be flipped if I am present or not. Now I am sure that any good expert on probabilities would laugh at that and say that the individual would have nothing to do with it, but I am not sure of that, as humans there are many many strange things that we are unaware of both rational and spiritual…mindset is important to many, just ask any oriental gambler.

Interesting idea and I can agree with your thinking.

It does seems that my life and mindset has an effect on my luck.
Mathematics help explain our world but nature has it's mysteries.

A butterfly beats its wings in China and Crapshoot wins with kings on stars.

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Yes 7, take me as an example, the more I bitch about my bad luck the more unlucky I get and when I win I am in a different frame of mind...it not only keeps me more focused and attentive but there is more to it that happens. Now you just can't say that you feel lucky or are going to win you have to feel it in mind and soul whether it is conscious or sub-conscious. Ask cat5cane, he feels he has timing and intuition and he does...he feels it and I am sure when he loses he does not have that same unbeatable inner sub-conscious feeling...you must have body and soul in whatever you do!...and that is why when you lose if you don't adjust your sub-conscious mind you will start a losing streak. That is also why one might do better at live games as opposed to online games or certain sites or certain games as opposed to others...they start off feeling differently about them, so they have a little more going for them at the start and sometimes it is why some say that a break will do you good when things are going wrong...your bad inner vibes might just disappear in the layoff, providing that you come back with that "spring is in the air, smell the flowers" attitude. Why is that old saying "when things go wrong, everything goes wrong" so true?...is it coincidence or is it mindset? Why is it that those that are lucky look like they are walking on air and appear clear and bright and those that are unlucky appear dark with slumped shoulders and scuffling their feet?....does their frame of mind make them that way and in turn affect the outcome of events?...feel the luck, truly feel the luck, in and out, conscious and sub-conscious...breath it, smell it, touch it and talk it!

I had a couple of nights, including last night where I felt it. I didn't care if I lost and I knew I would win. I lost a few...they did hit some lucky cards to beat me...but no slumped shoulders ..because I really felt I would win the next game..and I did. I won most of my $10 heads-up games, and I also played at $20 and on Saturday I played at $50 and I won those too. On those night I really knew I would win. I had no doubts whatsoever.

Yours is a good post. I need to feel like this. I need to feel I can win rather than looking for the next bad beat to arrive. My confidence on stars has waned this year. Been on a bad run. Yes, I've been incredibly unlucky at times but maybe I've had a little of that dark and slumped shoulders air about me because of it.

Also, is it a coincidence that there have been some obstacles in my personal
life, which have now almost been overcome. Has that fact allowed me to play better now? I don't know.
I can show you bad beat after bad beat this year but would these of happened if my attitude had been right when I played those games.

__________________
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May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
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....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
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June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

I believe in a self-fulfilled prophecy. If you think that suck-out is coming on the river, it probably will. Sometimes we are our own worst enemy. I believe I understood some of this thinking you are referring to after pitching 8 years for a womens A league softball team. The psycology of a pitcher has to be very focused and positive. It is easy to drag a team down when you are not on top of your game.

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Real poker players don't cry....

The FLOP determines how good your hole cards are!!

visit me at http://www.myspace.com/tzucanow

What you are describing (knowing the cards will/won't hit) seems much more like the effects of depression. When you are depressed, you are much more likely to see the bad luck then the good luck. The bad luck you see is amplified in magnitude ("I CAN'T BELIEVE I LOST TO A 13 OUTER!!" - despite the fact that a 13 outer on the flop is actually the favorite), while the good luck you get is downplayed ("Big deal - I won a pot" - despite the fact that you hit a 5 outer on the turn with very poor odds to win the hand).

As for when you are running well (and believe you will continue to run well), that's mania (essentially the opposite of depression). You believe you will hit great flops every hand, taking down pot after pot. Significant losses don't mean much, and it's because of this that this type of mindset is the one of the most dangerous one to have.

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1st place, March/April 2008 Sunday League

Fault always lies in the same place, my fine babies: with him weak enough to lay blame.

lol Mars - no I don't suffer from manic depression

I can say that there have been times in my life when I've been depressed but what I'm talking about here is simply confidence, clear thinking and a completely rational determination to outplay opponents. The fear of losing diminishes somewhat and the plays come more naturally.

I believe Crapshoot's post is encouraging players to feel those things.

__________________
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May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner

Well put 7. Fear is a big factor. Fear of failure or the pressure to succeed can get in our way. When you just stay focused and do what you know your suppose to do, it works better. Things like second guessing myself, because of so many opinions in poker have gotten me jumbled at times. Yes, we do have to experiment now and again, but done on our own time when we are ready for the change is best. A positive attitude is always beneficial.

__________________
Real poker players don't cry....

The FLOP determines how good your hole cards are!!

visit me at http://www.myspace.com/tzucanow

Absolutely agree.

__________________
.



May/June '07
....Team:7 Black Balls
.... Sunday Lge Team Champs

Nov/Dec '07
....Team: 7Balls
....Sunday Lge Team Champs
....Sunday Lge Individual RunnerUp

Jan/Feb '08
....Sunday Lge Individual RunerUp

June/July '08
....Midweek League
....Winner